As Pandemic Drags On, Consumers Seeking Health Drive Record Natural & Organic Sales as Retailers Adapt to Change

This article originally appeared in Presence Marketing’s August 2020 newsletter edition and on New Hope Network’s IdeaXchange.

By Steven Hoffman

More than five months have passed since the nation and world have come under the grip of the coronavirus. Today, as Covid-19 continues to surge throughout the U.S., we wait in lines to get into stores, wear face coverings (well, at least most of us), follow floor markers to help ensure social distancing, and shop quickly to get in and out with our groceries. The days of browsing, sampling product, and being entertained by large merchandising displays and the “theater of food” have made way in large part for safety and efficiency as consumers change their shopping behavior in brick and mortar stores, and increasingly turn to options including online ordering, curbside pickup and delivery.

One thing is for sure, though. The coronavirus crisis is bringing out better eating habits, based on recent sales data, as Americans seek to improve their health and immunity, and as core natural and organic consumers double down on healthy, clean food to help ensure the health and safety of their families during these “safer at home” times.

In fact, natural and organic products are experiencing significantly higher sales in 2020, and that trend may continue. After seeing a 39% spike in sales due to stockpiling for the four weeks ending March 22, 2020, compared to the same period in 2019, natural products retail sales for the four weeks ending June 14, 2020, increased 14% over the previous year, according to market research firm SPINS, as reported in New Hope Network’s Natural Products Industry Health Monitor. And that’s after back-to-back 18% increases in the four week periods ending April 19 and May 17, respectively, reported SPINS.

Chart Source: New Hope Network, SPINS

Organic Food and Beverage Sales Surge 25%
Bloomberg reported in July that Americans “are prioritizing nutrition over cost as Covid-19 infections continue to rise across the U.S.,” pointing to Nielsen data showing that sales of organic food and beverages surged 25% for the 17-week period ending June 27, 2020. Organic meat, seafood and frozen food saw the largest increases, Bloomberg reported. “We’re expecting strength to continue in organic and natural food sales,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jennifer Bartashus in the article. Given the lockdowns to prevent the spread of the virus, “a lot of people have used the opportunity of working from home to really make a lifestyle change – lose weight and exercise,” she said.

At the same time, Bloomberg noted, while unemployment has skyrocketed and value matters more than ever, declines in discretionary spending have allowed more room for premium and specialty foods, including natural and organic products. “People are starting to look at what they’re consuming more thoughtfully now,” Ted Robb, CEO of New Barn Organics, told Bloomberg. “People are not going to fly. They’re not going to the salon. Even though we’re in a recession, and people are trying to be careful, food is one area where they can spend a little bit more,” he said. 

Dietary supplements, too, are benefitting from a focus on immunity and health, leading to the highest growth rate in over 20 years for this category, reported Nutrition Business Journal. NBJ projects supplement sales in 2020 will grow 12.1% across all categories, with immunity supplements growing more than 50%, to surpass $50 billion in sales. Of note, NBJ projects that e-commerce sales of nutritional supplements will grow a whopping 61.4% in 2020, compared to 7.1% in brick and mortar stores. Longer term, online sales of supplements could increase from 10% of the market in 2019 to 20% of the overall market by 2023, NBJ predicts.

Other natural and organic categories benefitting from the coronavirus crisis, according to SPINS and New Hope Network, include shelf-stable beans, grains and rice, which took off in March with 160% growth for the four weeks ending March 22, and which still reported a robust 26% growth rate in June. Sales of plant-based meat alternatives have risen significantly, too, as coronavirus cases at meat processing plants may have led to negative perceptions of the conventional meat industry and its supply chain. 

Categories in sharp decline, however, as people continue to stay closer to home include cosmetics and beauty products, weight management formulas, water bottles and filtration, body care kits, deodorants and antiperspirants, and shelf-stable jerky and meat snacks, reported SPINS and New Hope.

Fighting for Foot Traffic
In examining how the pandemic is shifting consumer behaviors, research firm Gravy Analytics compared foot traffic at four leading groceries including Wegman’s, Whole Foods Market, Safeway and Publix through June 2020. Foot traffic at these stores was typical in February and early March. This was interrupted by a spike in mid-March when consumers began pantry loading. Subsequently, foot traffic at all four supermarkets in the study declined, reaching its lowest point in mid-April before leveling off in June, according to Gravy Analytics.

While all supermarkets in the study were impacted by the pandemic, Whole Foods Market fared worse, according to the data. For the week of June 14, foot traffic to Safeway and Publix was 28% and 26% lower, respectively, compared to the week of February 2. Yet, Whole Foods Market’s foot traffic was 44% lower. 

“However,” the Gravy Analytics researchers emphasized, “while foot traffic is an important indicator, it doesn’t necessarily mean that fewer consumers are shopping at Whole Foods and Wegman’s. Less foot traffic in store could be a reflection of consumers opting to use new curbside and delivery services. Regular Whole Foods customers, for example, might be purchasing their groceries through Amazon instead. Consumers might simply be less familiar with Publix, Safeway, and Wegman’s curbside pickup and delivery services, making them more inclined to go into the store. While convenience isn’t a new consumer behavior trend, it is becoming more prominent as stores find new ways to give consumers a safer shopping experience, and consumers become more familiar with these services,” they said.

In a panel hosted by Winsight Grocery Business in early July, former Whole Foods Co-CEO Walter Robb expressed concern over the reduction in store traffic, and an associated “de-emphasis” on in-store merchandising during the pandemic. “One thing we’re seeing across all retailers is less trips,” Robb told the panel. “And in retail, the trip is precious, just precious. And they have stepped back significantly. The basket is gone up to counter that, so it was supposed to come out even. But the nature of it is that with the way the store is set up now, it becomes more transactional. There’s much less of a value in merchandising, etc., because folks want to get in and get out. And so, you know, whether it’s the reduction of SKUs or whether it’s the fact that you’re flattening or spreading out your displays or whatever, I think, the advantage of physical stores that from a merchandise perspective, particularly a retailer like Whole Foods, is minimized as a result of this.”

Planning When Everything Is Changing
“How do we shape our promotional strategy in a time when everything is changing?” asked Jonathan Lawrence, Senior Director of Grocery & Natural Living for Fresh Thyme Farmers Market. Based in Downers Grove, IL, Fresh Thyme’s hybrid mix of 70% natural/organic to 30% conventional product offerings in its 74 stores located throughout the Midwest help shoppers get everything they need in a value-based, one-stop shopping format, Lawrence said. “How do we provide amazing customer service and promotion and at the same time respect social distancing? How do we reach customers and support them in a safe manner? That’s the challenge, but is absolutely what is needed,” Lawrence mused. 

Lawrence confirmed that, like other retailers, the customer count at Fresh Thyme is down, but the average basket purchase is up. “We are ramping up with the idea that this may come back hard in the fall,” he said. “We are starting to plan for the immune season and how we are going to tackle it differently; our responsibility is to be there for our customers. There are categories leading the way that haven’t before, such as zinc, immune support products, hand sanitizer, etc. Now, they are spiking and we are sometimes having to think outside the box with our vendors to get product on the shelf. We might opt for a different size or a different product to have something on the shelf,” he said.

Fresh Thyme plans to open a new store in downtown St. Louis in 2021, and hopes to incorporate what it is learning now into the new concept. “You are going to see the new evolution of Fresh Thyme with the new store and also with planned remodels. We’re going to craft the product mix around the customer and the local community,” Lawrence said.

“How do we change the fluidity of our supply chain and food system? We need a shorter runway in our supply system, and that’s the challenge,” said Corinne Shindelar, founder and former president of the Independent Natural Foods Retail Association (INFRA). “As an industry, we have always been about system changes and trying to make things better. We now have the opportunity to change the system pretty rapidly because we have the ears of society like never before. We could be influencing a more dynamic and robust outcome, but only if we do the work. We don’t know how long this pandemic will last. As such, I would put many contingency plans into the budget,” she advised. 

To save money on delivery services – Instacart charges up to 8%, said Shindelar - she recommends that independent retailers could do something as simple as add a line to a cell phone as an ordering hotline. “We overcomplicate things,” she said. Shindelar also advised retailers to consider what to reopen. “If you were losing money at food service, with high labor costs and low margins, now is the time to consider working with local restaurants and food service operators that retailers can feature as grab-and-go meal solutions,” she advised. 

Walter Robb, who served as co-CEO of Whole Foods Market when it became one of Instacart’s high profile partners, advised retailers on the Winsight Grocery Business panel to be sure to capture customer data when working with a third party delivery service. “If you don’t capture the data on your customers and know who they are, what they’re buying and be able to look at their basket adjacencies and the analytics, then you’re breathing in the dark in terms of growing business,” he cautioned.

At Cambridge Natural Foods, located in the heart of Boston, the family-owned business felt the shock of universities and colleges nearby closing, and people leaving the city for second homes when they could to escape the pandemic, said cofounder Michael Kanter. Out of an overabundance of caution, the store initially closed for a week in mid-March and then opened for curbside and delivery only. It fully reopened its doors on July 7, to the community’s – and family’s – relief. “In hindsight, it was painful to close, but we also saw that our staff and customers were vulnerable,” said Kanter. “Now, we are limiting the number of customers in the store, we’ve installed plexiglass protection, we’re doing a lot of curbside pickup and delivery, and we’ve limited hours to help keep our staff safe and sane. We’re back to about three-fifths of our normal volume,” he said. 

There may be a silver lining in what we learn from the pandemic, Kanter offered. “We weren’t so conscious of public health and hygiene in public places before. We kind of know we are a part of each other but until you experience something like this, you don’t think about it. Now we are much more aware of how what we do affects others. Maybe that will propel us forward into realizing that caring and sharing are paramount in society.”

# # #

COVID Crisis Update: Natural Products Retailers Respond to New Normal by Opening New Stores

This article originally appeared in Presence Marketing’s July 2020 newsletter edition and on New Hope Network’s IdeaXchange.

By Steven Hoffman

As the United States slowly re-opens for business with the coronavirus pandemic entering its fifth month, many Americans are still playing it safe as cases continue to surge in states and regions throughout the country. Restaurants and bars are re-opening, however, with crowd capacities limited by public health regulations, food service businesses are still nowhere near where they once were. And, as the pandemic has shuttered day camps, benched Little League games, cancelled concerts and limited other warm-weather activities, families and kids are staying much closer to home this summer.

As such, grocery stores – including the nation’s natural foods stores – continue to play an essential role in feeding Americans during the pandemic crisis. Several natural food retailers we talked to anticipate there will not be much of a traditional “summer slump” in sales this season.

In fact, a number of retailers are taking advantage of the moment to open new stores. Boulder-based Alfalfa’s Market announced in mid-June it was taking over a former Lucky’s Market location in nearby Longmont to open a third store to serve Colorado’s Front Range population. Los Angeles-based Erewhon is adding two new stores to its five-store chain in the next 12 months. PCC just opened its 14th natural foods store in the Seattle area; and while it postponed Grand Opening celebrations, Natural Grocers opened a new store in Cedar City, UT, on June 10. Publicly held natural products retailer Sprouts, which CEO Jack Sinclair describes as “more of a farmers market than a grocer,” is moving ahead with plans to open 20 stores in key markets across the country, and like many retailers, has expanded at-home delivery and curbside pickup, as well as significantly increased its e-commerce sales. In addition, pandemic notwithstanding, conventional grocer Schnuck’s unveiled its brand new “EatWell” natural food concept store in Colombia, MO, on June 24. 

To help reassure customers and workers, many of these retailers have enacted strict COVID guidelines. For example, Maryland-based MOMs Organic Market published COVID-19 Action Steps on its website, and Natural Grocers also informs its customers about COVID safety on its website.

“Grocery Is the Business to Be In”
“Our comps are off the charts,” said Tony Antoci, CEO and owner of Erewhon, the legendary natural foods chain in Los Angeles. Antoci, a food service distribution veteran, purchased the original single Erewhon location in 2011, and self-financed the growth of the chain to five stores, with two additional locations planned to open between now and March 2021. “We’ve seen a 300-400% increase in grocery and produce sales since the coronavirus crisis began, he said. “Protein sales grew four-fold until the end of May; now we are starting to see a leveling off, but our deli and prepared food sales are increasing as our customer base starts to get back to a new normal. We also ramped up our web ordering and delivery capabilities – something we were trying to engage but never got around to – and we had a healthy online business in a week. Now, we are averaging 200-250 online orders across five stores per day. If this was a restaurant, I would not open a new location, but grocery is the business to be in,” Antoci said.

At Jimbo’s Naturally, a five-store independently owned chain in San Diego, customer counts have decreased since the coronavirus crisis began, but they’re more than made up for in the increased average purchase, noted founder and CEO Jimbo Somek. “People don’t want to make as many trips if they can avoid it, but the average ticket is twice as high as it was before the pandemic,” he said. Somek also admitted, “It’s one thing to plan for increased demand, however, it’s another thing when the stores are doing two to three times the sales they were doing the day before. There were a lot of long days,” he said. When asked about potentially opening a new store, Somek replied, “I don’t know if it’s a good time or not to open new stores. The challenge is to know where all this is going,” he reflected.

UNFI Stock Surges
In serving all this retail growth, leading natural foods distributor UNFI (NYSE: UNFI) saw its stock price surge 45.8% in the past three months. “Several food companies are benefiting from rising demand owing to increased at-home consumption and stockpiling trends amid coronavirus,” wrote analysts at Zacks Equity Research in late June. “The packaged food space is especially gaining on such trends as the lockdown has prompted shoppers to buy and hoard packaged food and beverages. This has boosted sales of several food players, including United Natural Foods Inc. (UNFI). United Natural’s ability to cater to the rising demand amid the pandemic reflects its robust market position and the important role it plays in North America’s food supply chain,” the analysts concluded.

In related news, Sprouts Farmers Market (Nasdaq: SFM) was ranked on June 18 by Zacks Equity Research as a top growth stock, acknowledging that it is a long-term beneficiary of the pandemic. Kroger (NYSE: KR), too, has been outperforming the stock market as a beneficiary of the “eat at home” trend driven by the pandemic, along with the company’s moves to cut $1 billion in costs and invest in digital growth. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Robert Ohmes reiterated a Buy rating on June 19, noting that he believes Kroger will continue to see strong sales even as COVID-related restrictions are lifted in many areas. Natural Grocers (NYSE: NGVC), too, saw its stock price more than double to well over $12 per share at the end of June from a low of $5.80 on March 12 when the pandemic first struck the U.S.

Consumers Are Leaning in to a Healthy Lifestyle
Driving sales is a growing number of consumers seeking out healthier, more nutritious products during the COVID-19 crisis to boost immunity and health. “Far from abandoning their natural lifestyle during COVID-19, natural products shoppers are widening their preferences, seeking and avoiding various ingredients, label claims and certifications,” states COVID-19 and Navigating the Path Ahead: Supporting The Natural Products Consumer, a report published on May 29, 2020, by leading market research firms SPINS and IRI. Leading the charge, said SPINS/IRI, are paleo products, plant-based meat alternatives, baking products and staple items, household cleaning items, soap and bath preparations, natural remedies to help support immunity and reduce stress and anxiety, and value-based products as many people struggle through unprecedented economic times brought on by the COVID-19 crisis.

In addition, according to Laura Batcha, CEO of the Organic Trade Association, consumers are purchasing more organic products than ever before. Organic products sales topped $55 billion in 2019, up 4.6% from the previous year, and as health comes into focus, many organic categories have seen demand increase even further. Organic produce sales jumped 50% in the early days of the pandemic, and by spring 2020, sales were still up by more than 20%, Batcha noted.

“It’s hard to know what’s ahead of us, but consumers will continue to trust in and depend on the organic label,” said Batcha. “Organic producers and processors – indeed the entire organic supply chain – have been working around the clock through this difficult time to keep our stores filled with healthy, toxic-free and sustainably produced organic food and products. Organic is going to be there for the consumer.”

Speaking at the United Fresh LIVE virtual conference on June 17, Tonya Antle, cofounder of the Organic Produce Network (OPN), corroborated that organic produce has outperformed the conventional produce category at retail during the pandemic. According to Antle, OPN’s latest retail scan data show that both volume and dollar sales of organic produce were up more than 16% during the month of May. In addition, according to OTA data, organic staple categories including dairy, eggs, bread, pasta, rice, grains and baking supplies are expected to see increased growth in 2020, along with organic vitamins and immunity-related products.

Controversy over Face Masks
The surge in grocery and natural products sales has certainly not come without its challenges. The wearing of face masks, required in many municipalities and public and commercial places, for instance, has become divisive and some conflicts in stores have happened. According to TribLive, more than 30 lawsuits have been filed against Giant Eagle over the grocery chain’s face mask policy, claiming it is discriminatory under the Americans with Disabilities Act. The Mirror UK reported on June 22 about a Walmart incident in which a defiant customer refusing to wear a mask got into a scuffle with a security guard.

“It’s a very difficult position for us to put our staff in, whether it’s an 18-, 19-year-old college student working, or a single mom, a dad,” Bryan Neiman, operator of Neiman’s Family Market, a small Michigan grocery chain, told Time Magazine in reference to face masks. Neiman’s has signs posted asking customers to wear facial coverings, and shoppers can get a mask at customer service, he said. But, according to Time, he’s telling his employees not to confront mask-less customers, for fear of triggering a confrontation. The magazine reported that similar incidents have happened all over the country.

Texas-based grocer H-E-B, which initially required customers to wear face masks in mid-April, announced in early June that it was relaxing its policy; now, shoppers are no longer required to wear face masks in its stores, reported Grocery Dive. The chain still encourages customers to wear face coverings. In addition, wearing masks will remain mandatory for employees and vendors, Grocery Dive reported.

Seasonal Promotions Affected in 2020
As retailers scrambled to respond to the tectonic shifts in consumer buying behavior brought on by the coronavirus crisis, any focus on seasonal sales and promotions was stalled, said Donnie Baldwin, Senior Director of Conventional Grocery for the Central and Western U.S. for leading natural products broker Presence Marketing / Dynamic Presence. “For 2020, we are staying busy serving our retail partners’ immediate needs,” he said, but the crisis impacted promotional sales and planning for such holidays as Easter, Mother’s Day, Memorial Day, Father’s Day and more. “However, while retailers may miss the seasonal sales this year, they’ve got their hands full keeping the store shelves stocked as full as they can,” he said. 

“The good news is the average dollar ring per basket is up, but while the head count of customers shopping in stores is down – or they are shopping quickly through the store – it has impacted sales of seasonal items and impulse items,” Baldwin said. “As we talk with account executives around the country, buyers are still focused on staple items. They want to make sure they’ve got control of the supply chain on staples. That’s been a priority, and the good news is we are starting to see them get a handle on that.”

Baldwin’s counterpart, Jim Crotty, Senior Director of Conventional Grocery for the Eastern U.S. for Presence Marketing, added that retailers are looking at Fall and the holidays, but many are still not quite ready to focus on new items, or execution has been slowed. “Operations and taking care of their people are coming first right now,” said Crotty. “Come September, they might start bringing new products in; it is just happening at a slower pace. We are presenting holiday items such as eggnog and pumpkin flavors now and will continue to do so. Hopefully, we will be able to see things open up in November/December,” he added.

Meanwhile, Baldwin noted that some of his team members have been getting creative in leveraging technology and developing YouTube video presentations for retail partners, a sample of which can be viewed here.

“I really feel that by late in the Third Quarter and early in the Fourth Quarter, things are going to start opening up and retailers will start getting back to the basics,” Baldwin predicted. “This industry is very adaptive and resilient and we always look to find a way to carry on.”

Resources

The Pandemic Shows Us the Genius of Supermarkets: A Short History of the Stores that – Even Now – Keep Us Supplied with an Abundance of Choices
Atlantic Magazine, July/August 2020
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/supermarkets-are-a-miracle/612244/

Market Research Report: COVID-19 and Navigating the Path Ahead – Supporting the Natural Products Consumer
SPINS/IRI, May 29, 2020
https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/SPINS-Joint-Thought-Leadership-5-28-20.pdf

Tracking Coronavirus Closures at Food and Beverage Factories
By Food Dive, Updated June 19, 2020
https://www.fooddive.com/news/tracking-coronavirus-closures-at-food-and-beverage-factories/576559/?mc_cid=5c0261a1e5&mc_eid=49fe8c77e3

Chain, Chain, Chain: Natural Products Companies Take Necessary Steps to Assure Supply Chain Consistency Amid Covid-19 Crisis

Photo: Pexels

By Steven Hoffman, Compass Natural Marketing, Managing Director

This article originally appeared in Presence Marketing’s June 2020 newsletter edition and on New Hope Network’s IdeaXchange.

As the coronavirus crisis entered its third month in May, the U.S. saw concerns about its food system’s supply chain come to the fore. The media’s dramatic coverage of workers falling ill in the nation’s conventional meatpacking plants, crops wasting in the fields, and dairy farmers dumping milk continues to alarm Americans, and justifiably so, even as the country begins to open up in fits and starts. 

Despite – or perhaps as a result of – President Trump’s invocation of the Defense Production Act to keep the nation’s meat packing plants open, the nonprofit Food & Environment Reporting Network (FERN) reported on May 22 that in the U.S., “at least 220 meatpacking and food processing plants and 20 farms and production facilities have confirmed cases of Covid-19, and at least four food processing plants are currently closed.” In addition, FERN estimated that “at least 19,160 workers (17,360 meatpacking workers, 1,134 food processing workers, and 666 farm workers) have tested positive for Covid-19 and at least 72 workers (66 meatpacking workers and 6 food processing workers) have died.”

The outbreaks may be even more extensive, but large-scale meat processors and state and local officials are hesitant to provide data due to a “stigma associated with the virus,” the New York Times reported on May 25.

The problem is so severe for farmers that have been producing for the institutional food service market that in mid-May, USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue appeared on National Public Radio (NPR) to promote a $3 billion plan to establish a national “CSA” style Farmers to Family Food Box Program in an attempt to distribute food direct from farmers to low income families. 

"When you have the shutdown very suddenly of institutional food settings such as restaurants, schools, colleges and others, then that causes a misalignment in supply," Perdue told NPR’s Morning Edition. "And we've had to scramble in order to try to readjust that, and this food box program is one of those things which we've tried to do." 

Helping Both Sides of the Equation
When asked by NPR why not give people more money through the SNAP program to help people pay for food, Perdue responded, “That may help one side of the equation…it does not help those farmers and producers who have grown this food. They cannot make it to market because the supply chain they’ve been used to dealing with – the institutional food market – is no longer there.”

In seeking to reassure Americans that their food supply is safe, Perdue told NPR, “One of the challenges we had in protein – meat, poultry, beef, pork – had been the closure of some of our processing plants there. And we've had infections in those plants that caused some temporary closures. Essentially all those plants are back open. We've turned the corner, and while some retailers are suggesting they may not have the degree of variety that they once had, we expect that to be cured very quickly. I do expect us to be back up to 85-90% production in probably a very few days or weeks,” he said.

While USDA attempts to fast-track a direct distribution program, traditional CSA (Community Supported Agriculture) programs, where consumer members buy a “share” of the farm’s “often organic” harvest, are surging everywhere across the country, including record membership signups and waiting lists, reported NPR on May 10.

Food Prices on the Rise
Of greater concern, as nearly 40 million Americans have lost their jobs since the pandemic took hold in the U.S. in mid-March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI) announced that food prices in April recorded their highest monthly increase in nearly 50 years, reported USA Today on May 21. “Though overall, the April CPI declined 0.8%, consumers on average paid 2.6% more for groceries. It's the largest one-month increase since February 1974. During the past 12 months, grocery prices rose 4.1%. Price increases in the meat, poultry, fish and egg category were the steepest,” USA Today reported.

In addition, the Department of Justice and the USDA are reported to be investigating the four largest U.S. meat packers – Tyson Foods, JBS, National Beef and Cargill, who collectively control about 85% of the U.S. beef market – for price fixing. According to Politico, supermarket consumers are paying more for beef than they have in decades, but at the same time, the processing companies are paying farmers and ranchers “staggeringly low prices for cattle.”

Is the Supply Chain Broken or Stressed?
After Tyson Foods’ Chairman John Tyson warned in late April that “the food supply chain is breaking,” Abe Eshkenazi, CEO of the Association for Supply Chain Management, in mid-May told Supermarket News, “From our perspective we don’t think the food supply chain is broken as much as it is stressed. We’re entering a different frontier, relative to food right now, and that’s food scarcity. We started to see it in the beginning of the pandemic with consumer packaged goods, specifically toilet paper and paper towels. We saw a significant run on those particular products, but what we've also seen is that the supply chain has responded, so those gaps in the supply for those particular items are being filled,” he said.

“It's taken a while for the supply chains to respond to the spike in demand, but it's also critical that we recognize that this is a spike, Eshkenazi told Supermarket News. “This is not a new demand signal at that level. When we take a look at utilization, we're not looking at an increase in terms of food or consumer packaged goods…It's just that we're seeing a shift in terms of where the demand is being sensed right now, and that is in a home-based environment.”

When asked about shortages where retailers placed limits on consumer purchases, Eshkenazi shared with Supermarket News, “As the system catches up, I think we'll see an easing of that but it also does present a problem because the quotas are not relative to family size. They're relative to the buyer. So, a family of five or six has the same quota as a family of two. We have to be aware of the current circumstances that these individuals are facing. It's not a one size fits all.” 

Natural Products Manufacturers: Necessity is the Mother of Invention
Meanwhile, in the natural and organic products industry, producers and manufacturers are being driven by the rule, “necessity is the mother of invention.” By being nimble, companies are working hard to ensure a consistent supply chain for their retail and distribution customers. We talked with a few leading manufacturers and industry experts on how they are handling supply chain challenges during the coronavirus crisis. Here’s what they shared with us:

Carla Bartolucci, CEO, Bionaturae and Jovial
U.S.-born Carla Bartolucci and her husband Rodolfo are the founders of the certified organic brands Jovial and Bionaturae. The company is based in Connecticut but the main ingredients – wheat, the ancient grain Einkorn, tomatoes and other raw materials – are sourced in Italy, where the finished products are manufactured. As a provider of pastas, tomato sauces, juices, fruit spreads, cookies and other products, the brands have been in high demand during the pantry loading and subsequent shelter in place phases the U.S. has experienced during the pandemic.

“We were coming off of big months in January and February, and suddenly, here comes March. We were definitely caught off guard with the increase in sales we saw in flour, pasta and shelf-stable products. I can tell you for the first time in 25 years there was a day when our warehouse in Connecticut was completely empty,” said Carla Bartolucci.

The company could have sold more, but was limited by availability of a special compostable window used in the product packaging, and by having to queue up with contract manufacturers in Europe who were experiencing increased demand from all their customers. “Also, we blew through the contracts with our farmers already in June (contracts normally last until October), so we will be sourcing from outside of our network come July and August,” Bartolucci said. 

During the peak, the company was shipping out so many container loads each week that there was no time to fill them completely. “The volume of demand made us ship out containers that weren’t completely full, so there were some losses with that, but we had to get the product out. We are still producing and loading twice as much product as we normally would have, but not three times as much, so we can fill the containers more efficiently again,” she said.

Seeing a longer term impact to consumers’ purchasing patterns, Bartolucci observed, “Suddenly, the new facility we built four years ago in Connecticut now may not be big enough. I can see the future right here in front of me – people will be home more and cooking more. We are responding and preparing for the future much more quickly than we normally would have.”

Scott Jensen, CEO, Rhythm Superfoods
Rhythm Superfoods, an innovator in plant-based fruit and vegetable snacks, did a lot of groundwork to secure its supply chain well before the Covid-19 crisis hit, and it’s paying off, says founder and CEO Scott Jensen. The company, which requires the freshest product delivered consistently for its dried kale, beet, carrot, dried fruit and other certified organic snacks, made a strategic decision to shift its sourcing from the U.S., where weather and crops proved to be uncertain for the company, to working with four farming families in the north central region of Mexico. It is there, a good day’s drive from the Texas border, where the Austin-based company grows and manufactures all its products.

“We own two facilities in Guadalajara. Our farmers are all within a two- to three-hour drive to our production plant, and they are situated at different elevations, so we are able to produce all we need,” Jensen said. “Overall, the U.S. gets so much of its produce from South of the Border; it could be 30-50% of all produce sold in the U.S., depending on the season, and there are no tariffs on food. For Rhythm Superfoods, we need fresh, consistent, organic deliveries, and in that particular region of Mexico, they grow year round and our farmers are really good at growing a mix of crops,” he said.

“Our vertical integration also gives us the ability to sell beyond the U.S. market and to deal directly in pesos, which is a strong currency. We can ship to Asia and the EU and be competitive price-wise,” Jensen said. He also noted that the company has seen no slowdown in shipping at the border. “The crisis has prevented us from traveling to our farms for a few months, but we are getting everything we need from our producers.”

For its workers, the company has expanded cleaning protocols, implemented temperature checks, provided face masks, emphasized multiple hand-washing and continues to pay workers if they have to be sent home, among other heightened safety measures.

Jensen shared that his farmers have been impacted by the pandemic, as they grow for the food service market, too. “If we lost 50% of consumption of vegetables in food service, that hasn’t all shifted to retail; consumers don’t cook as many fresh vegetables at home as the chefs and restaurants who use a lot of fresh produce. As a result, all our farmers are recalibrating their plans for the growing season. I don’t think anyone can oracle out what’s happening in the next weeks and months, however, we are attentive to things going on daily and a slew of data, and we are communicating constantly with our leadership team,” he said. 

Pete Speranza, Cofounder, 301INC / General Mills
A former professional hockey player, Pete Speranza brings a competitive, team spirit as Cofounder of 301INC, the “brand elevator” arm of General Mills. As Director of New Business Development, Pete helped create a national scouting network for emerging natural and organic products brands, where he works closely with the entrepreneurs behind them. 

“What we’ve been telling our brands is that while external forces have changed, food values aren’t changing,” Speranza said. “Coming out of this, people will still eat more at home, and they may be looking for more nutrient-dense foods to support healthy immune systems. From a supply chain perspective, from the meat to the grain industry, we are moving beyond a commodity approach, where the farmer got paid the same price per bushel no matter the quality. Today, businesses are having to create supply chains that are nimbler to handle smaller producers. This will accelerate. People want transparency, higher quality and nutritious foods,” he added.

Speranza noted that a challenge smaller brands face today is that consumers are spending less time in grocery stores. “People are not browsing right now. They’re creating a list, getting their essentials, and there’s less impulse buying and discovery, which is what these new brands need.” Speranza is advising the brands he works with to be open to all sales channels and social media to reach and educate consumers about their products.

“Before Covid, everyone had their own zone and the supply chain was much more transactional,” he observed. “Yet, every part of that supply chain became nimble overnight. As a result, our brands will come out with stronger relationships with ingredient suppliers, co-packers and customers. This will bring some advantages in the future, as people may see they were more rigid than they needed to be, and that it may be more resilient to be nimble. It has reminded me how important a secure, transparent food supply chain system we will need in the future for people at any income level.”

Speranza also noted that “while forecasting tools were never dead on, in the old model, you weren’t off by more than 10%. In the next 10 months, efficiencies may be less because forecasts won’t be as accurate. We will need to build new data sets,” he said.

Cole Daily, EVP, Operations, Frontier Co-op
For more than 40 years, Frontier Co-op has been a leader in natural and organic herbs and spices, sourcing over 800 raw materials from more than 50 countries. “Needless to say, it made for a fluid, dynamic situation when Covid-19 hit; it was almost like watching dominoes fall when it hit China, then Southeast Asia, then Europe and then the U.S.,” said Cole Daily, Frontier’s EVP of Operations.

“Because the spice industry is uniquely vulnerable to outside forces, we have built a resilient supply chain by having alternative sources,” Daily said. “We’ve built some redundancy into our supply chain because, as they say, when Russia Sneezes, Poland gets a cold, which is very poignant right now. When you are sourcing from over 50 countries, something is bound to go wrong. As such, we are always planning for contingencies, but this is at a scale that is absolutely unprecedented.”

Daily noted that it hasn’t been so much a raw materials issue as it has been skyrocketing demand – company sales were up 100% for the latest four weeks in April, based on SPINS data, “and we are still tracking strongly, up over 36%, based on anecdotal IRI tracking data,” he said.

“The squeeze has been on the packaging side of things. After everyone emptied the shelves during the pantry loading period, refilling them has been a bit of a challenge. There’ve been short delays but we are beginning to normalize now. We’ve added new manufacturing lines and we are pretty much working nonstop to meet the overwhelming demand,” Daily said.

Frontier Co-op deals directly with farmers because, said Daily, who has been with the company 28 years, “We don’t want the inventory sitting overseas. We want it in our warehouse. In general, we go a little heavier on our inventories, which has helped in the current situation. Our suppliers are increasing their capacity right along with us and making sure they do it in a safe manner, but the $64,000 question is how do we forecast right now? We’re doing our best  to plan now for all types of products and to make sure we are out ahead of the demand. The resiliency we’ve built into our supply chain helps us, as we can go to these sources to increase buying, if needed.

For Daily, he has learned a few things during the coronavirus crisis. “The resiliency of people throughout the world, not just outside your front door, but the farmers throughout the world, the processors, and here in Iowa, the work ethic is incredible. Everyone is trying to do their best; we’re continuing to work through it, sometimes alone, but everyone together.”

Nikki Nolbertowicz, Midwest Regional VP, Presence Marketing
“Before the Covid crisis, products including soup and cereal were slow. Now, there’s a joke that there’s no ramen available in the distribution centers,” said Nikki Nolbertowicz. As Midwest Regional VP for Presence Marketing, she manages distributor relations nationwide for the leading independent sales brokerage firm, which celebrates its 30th anniversary in business this year. 

When distributors have to solve out of stock situations, it can create opportunities for other brands, Nolbertowicz noted. “For example, a distributor might try to bring other rice brands in, or find alternative products to fulfill current demand,” she said. “Consumers, too, are either trying other brands or new products, or looking online.” Over the past few months, distributors Nikki works with in ecommerce sales have seen an uptick three times their standard volume, and could have sold more if it were not for being out of stock on certain items, she said.

For brick and mortar stores, shopping habits have changed – consumers want to make less stops, so the average basket amount has gone up, Nikki observed. “There’ll be limited travel this summer and the kids will be home more with many activities being cancelled or delayed, so there will be more meals at home. For people whose jobs have not been impacted, they are beginning to splurge in grocery stores again, with an emphasis on self-care. For consumers that have been negatively impacted financially from the pandemic, they are looking at value products. Later in the year, many people will look to do more with less for the upcoming holidays with their families. Distributors are starting to think about that now,” she said.

Acknowledging that the concern is real for manufacturers in making sure they can meet the needs of retailers and distributors, Nolbertowicz noted that the industry overall has done an impressive job in responding to the pandemic. “I give everyone we work with – distributors, retailers, manufacturers – a lot of credit. Under the circumstances, they’ve done an amazing job and have been flexible, nimble and have upped their communications game. Getting the message out is more important than ever; with none, there is chaos.”

For Nikki, she believes that this has been an optimistic time for the natural products industry. “It has given new life to manufacturers and independent retailers, and has changed some consumer behaviors where people will be focused on cooking meals in the home and more time with family. Life will go back to some sort of normalcy, but the experience of family meals and quality time – people will want that to continue, which just helps our industry. This experience has given us all a chance to pause, refocus, and reprioritize in our work and personal lives what is most important. That will resonate for more than just the short term,” she said.

Bill Evans, CEO, Kalona SuperNatural
As a small scale, certified organic, grass fed dairy producer, Kalona SuperNatural has built resiliency into its supply chain by working not only with its own community of Amish and Mennonite dairy farmers in Eastern Iowa, but also by becoming expert in sourcing and brokering organic milk from throughout the nation, said Bill Evans, CEO and founder of the company. 

Also, the brand, which is growing, found itself at an advantage when the Covid-19 crisis struck because its sales are primarily in natural products grocery stores. “The conventional guys are having issues because they’ve got a large portion of their manufacturing set up for food service; there’s no place for that to go right now,” Evans said. 

Since the pandemic began, Kalona has been filling distributors’ large orders. “We’ve been able to accommodate a 25-30% increase in sales volume, whereas larger producers are shorting people. Kalona SuperNatural has been more successful than others in balancing our organic milk supply,” he said.

In addition, to its own production facilities, where workers have ample space for social distancing, Kalona owns its own trucking company, which has been a big advantage in getting deliveries out during the crisis. “We have the capacity to secure additional trucking when we need it. We provide dated, perishable product, and it needs to turn quickly; that means distributors will get us unloaded, even when their docks are crowded,” Evans noted.

“We have workers that have to be here to bottle milk and load and drive trucks. We’ve been taking all precautions and those folks have felt safe coming to work. What I’m most proud about is that our team has stuck together and gotten the job done,” he said.

Brad Barnhorn, Board Member and Business Advisor
After successfully building Fantasia, a leading natural juice brand that merged with Naked Juice and was subsequently acquired by PepsiCo, Brad Barnhorn has been advising CEOs and serving on numerous boards in the natural products industry, giving him a unique perspective on what’s happening with emerging and established brands during the pandemic.

“During this period, though there may be different dimensions, the questions are the same – how do you treat your customers, employees, supply chain and other partners?” Barnhorn asked. And how do you respond to the pressure to focus on performing items, Barnhorn also asked, referring to the compulsion for companies to do “SKU rationalization” as manufacturers, as well as retailers, focus their resources on the products most in demand.

“If you’re a company with sales north of $50 million or $100 million that has great brand equity, that allows for flexibility to temporarily stop some SKUs. The tough space is when you are a mid-sized company, say in the $15 million to $20 million range, odds are if you take some SKUs out, you might not get them back in the stores. That might not be the right decision, strategically. If you’re a small brand, you might not have the market power to bring the SKUs back,” Barnhorn said.

Instead, he offers, “I might make the decision as a small company to change my production schedules. Maybe I produce the item less frequently but with higher inventory levels, try to find ways to reduce complexity, have more efficient runs, and take a risk on higher inventory. Many distributors have been more flexible with brands on their standard requirements for the amount of shelf life that needs to be remaining on the product when they receive it into their warehouses. For example, UNFI typically requires 75% of shelf life remaining, but it has been making exceptions to that. It is essential to be in close contact with your distributors on an ongoing basis to understand this dynamic, as well as other elements of working with them that may have been altered in this unique period to provide companies a measure of operating flexibility ... but also, are more than likely to change back to the previous rules of engagement in the future,” he said.

Barnhorn advises, “If you have not audited your supply chain in the past two to three years because things have been going on as normal, it’s time to analyze, talk to other manufacturers and co-packers, get up to date on the flexibility and options you have in your supply chain. Take this moment of urgency to have these conversations.”

Daniel Fabricant, CEO, Natural Products Association
As CEO of the largest trade association representing the natural products industry, Daniel Fabricant, Ph.D., is concerned about fraudulent products as consumer flock to dietary supplements to strengthen immunity and health. “Elderberry is very popular right now. There is such consumer demand and the margins are so big that we are starting to see adulterated product come out. We may see many more fakes in the market because that’s where the demand is,” Fabricant warned. “If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. It may be best to stick with the brands you’ve always seen in your natural products retail store – they’re well established and trusted,” he advised.

On the plus side, Fabricant noted that 70% of Americans use supplements, though many of those have been casual users. “But now many of those consumers will take extra supplements, such as zinc and Vitamins C and D. These products will stay part of people’s regimen,” he said. However, Fabricant noted that the sports nutrition category has taken a big hit as gyms have closed down.

“The biggest thing for us as an organization was when the Department of Homeland Security issued their first guidance, there was no mention of supplement manufacturers. However, in the second guidance, we were successful in getting the language in to protect the supplements supply chain. We wanted to keep as many channels of distribution open as possible, said Fabricant.

“The supply chain in the next five to 10 years is going to be a very fast moving target. We can do manufacturing smarter and cleaner now, and there is strong interest in vertically integrating in the U.S. Also, while people say that everything is going to the Internet, there is still strong interest in going to stores; people want to go to independent retailers. Most importantly, “Fabricant advised, “as an industry, we always have to stay engaged. We are an essential business, and that messaging should never stop.”

Natural Products Industry Prepares for a Post-COVID Future

By Steven Hoffman

This article originally appeared in New Hope Network’s IdeaXchange and Presence Marketing’s May 2020 newsletter edition. 

As the nation continued to battle the COVID-19 pandemic in April, with confirmed cases in the U.S. reaching 1 million and deaths from the disease surpassing 55,000 (more than the total number of U.S. casualties in the Vietnam War), the natural products industry, along with the mainstream food industry, found itself firmly on the frontline of the coronavirus crisis. In helping to keep food on America’s table during an unprecedented time of turmoil, sadly, this came not without some illness and casualties of its own among workers in natural foods stores and in mainstream groceries.

The month also saw farmers dumping tons of eggs, milk and fresh produce bound for restaurants, hotels, schools and other food service operations that were shuttered – product that couldn’t be re-routed – while frustratingly, grocers across the country were still struggling to keep product on the shelf as supply chains were further strained. Food banks, too, experienced long lines and shortages of staple products due in part to the demands of a record 26.5 million Americans who have filed for unemployment since mid-March. 

Yet, among a bunch of bad news, retailers, distributors, manufacturers and others in the natural foods industry continued to pivot and do everything they could to serve and protect customers, minimize risk to workers, ensure inventory and respond to ever-evolving local, state and federal guidelines and shelter-in-place rules. 

First, in response to a worrying number of employee illnesses, many grocers are now requiring that all workers wear face masks, though they, too, are having to compete with the federal government, hospitals and others to procure scarce Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). In addition, the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union (UFCW) along with Kroger, Stop & Shop and others, issued a joint statement on April 27 calling on federal and state governments to designate grocery store employees as “extended first responders” or “emergency personnel.” 

“We are urgently requesting our nation’s state and federal leaders temporarily designate these workers as first responders or emergency personnel,” the joint statement said. “This critical status would help ensure our essential grocery workers have priority access to testing, emergency childcare, and other protections to keep themselves and their families safe and healthy. For the sake of workers, their families, and our nation’s food supply, this action will provide grocery workers with the vital protections they deserve.”

Responding swiftly to the lack of PPE for natural foods employees, Presence Marketing worked with one of its brand partners to manufacture face masks and other protective gear to provide to industry partners in manufacturing, distribution and in stores, “plus we’re working on a retail pack for consumers,” said Christine Tzumas, COO of Presence Marketing. “Our field team has been on the front lines from the beginning of this crisis working fast and furious to serve our customers in any possible way, from helping unload trucks when they show up at the dock to lending a hand stocking store shelves,” she said. 

“The biggest thing for us right now is communication – we’re communicating everything going on as quickly as possible,” Tzumas continued. “Our brand partners have been receiving weekly, fact-driven COVID-19 updates, and the response has been so positive that we want to continue it in some fashion. While we’ve been dealing with this crisis, we still can’t lose sight of what’s on the other side and what the world will look like six months out from now. Hopefully, we will be moving beyond this. Our team has blown me away every day making sure to get food on the shelves – we’re blessed to be with the people and companies we work with. You don’t hear those same stories in other industries,” Tzumas added. 

Phases of a Crisis
According to natural products market research firm SPINS, we’ve seen three distinct phases in terms of consumer shopping behavior since the coronavirus crisis hit the U.S. in late February. Also, with restaurants and other out-of-home dining options accountable for roughly half of all food expenditures, with their abrupt closure, demand doubled overnight for the nation’s grocers.

By late February, consumers who had an early read on the coming pandemic were responsible for big upticks in sales of preventive care products in natural foods channels, including vitamins, dietary supplements, probiotics, and herbal and homeopathic products. This was what SPINS refers to as Phase One: Proactive Self Care and Wellbeing, according to Kathryn Peters, EVP of Business Development for SPINS, in an April 21 webinar presented by New Hope Network.

“During the weeks of February 16 and 23, when there was still just a small number of confirmed COVID cases in the U.S. and the problems in China still seemed a bit far away, there was an early band of proactive shoppers beginning to stock up in key immunity-related categories beyond the regular cold and flu season type of products. That was when self-care items also started to pop, such as hand wipes and sanitizer. By late February, people were beginning to have a hard time finding hand sanitizer in stores,” she observed.

To provide some perspective, when Phase One began, “from just the previous week, we saw some extraordinary increases in a number of areas for the week ending February 23,” Peters said, noting a 1,285% increase sales of vitamins and supplements and a 211% increase in herbal and homeopathic products sales.

“We all know what Phase Two looked like – during the weeks of March 15 and March 22 – this was the mass stock up,” Peters continued. “During this ‘Pantry Prep & Loading’ phase, virtually everything sold.” Peters noted that during this period, 15 million additional buyers bought natural products. “That is a substantial number of products being bought by shoppers that are now in pantries. Time will tell if they will become continued shoppers; hopefully, there’s been a lot of trial,” she said.

April began Phase Three: Quarantine, according to SPINS data, with upticks in sales of baking mixes, pastas and spa-related items as Americans hunkered down at home and did their best to cook for their families, and pamper themselves while not being allowed to visit salons, massage therapists or other service providers. “Households seem to be bonding over baking, whether it’s bread or desserts – Instagram is full of proud creations,” Peters said. 

The New Normal
“And then there’s Phase Four – what life is going to look like on the other side,” Peters said, noting that there will be some lasting shifts in consumer behavior in the “new normal” once the health crisis subsides. With consumers homebound, re-connecting with cooking and seeking more prepared food options, grocers are being presented with an opportunity to capitalize on providing mealtime solutions – something they were having difficulty with before.

Organic produce, too, experienced a resurgence, recording a 22% sales jump in March and an 8% increase overall for the first quarter, outperforming conventional produce sales, according to the 2020 Q1 Organic Produce Performance Report published by the Organic Produce Network and Category Partners. Growth may have been even higher, but was tempered by widespread out of stock conditions during the panic buying period in mid-March. “Organic fresh produce sales in the first quarter were strong, and the impact of COVID-19 in March pushed numbers even more,” Matt Seeley, CEO of the Organic Produce Network, said. “We continue to see organic fresh produce sales outpace the dollar and volume growth rate of conventional fresh produce.”

Another lasting trend will be a continued focus on proactive self-care and personal safety – immunity supplements cleaners, wipes, masks and other related household items will continue at a high level. Also, “while comfort foods are important, we are seeing growing recognition of healthy and nutrient dense food, too. This comes with consumers’ increasing recognition that our body’s immune system is the best line of defense. Even with economic pressures, we see this continuing. We believe that this unfortunate health crisis will be a bright spot in continuing to bring health and wellness even more mainstream,” Peters of SPINS said.

“We are very concerned about those negatively economically impacted by the coronavirus crisis. If there’s one major tectonic shift, it is the march toward more and better value product offerings to lower barriers of entry from a pricing standpoint,” said Ben Nauman, Director of Purchasing for National Co+op Grocers (NCG). Nauman noted that sales in March for its retail members were up nearly 30% compared to March 2019 sales. 

NCG has been helping its members coordinate distribution and supply chain issues, take advantage of government stimulus programs, and currently, it is reinvigorating a recession playbook created in 2008 to help members manage cash flow and liquidity during economic downturns. “We’re also beginning to explore what it looks like to retail in a more contactless way going forward,” Nauman added.

For Sprouts Farmers Markets, a publicly traded natural foods retailer with nearly 350 stores and 30,000 employees, “due to our brands and distributor partners, we are in good stock level considering how high our sales are, and our customers are recognizing how good we are about being in stock,” noted John Soukup, Senior Category Manager for Sprouts. The company recently expanded curbside pickup and Instacart service to all its stores. “In addition, we have been very proactive in implementing measures to help our employees feel as safe as possible,” he added, noting that all employees are required to wear masks and gloves chainwide, the stores have installed sneeze shields in all checkout lanes, and store hours have been reduced to allow for deep cleaning. In addition, “we’ve offered bonuses to our employees instead of hourly increases. However, our leadership is doing a good job in compensating – we’ve already given out two to three rounds of bonuses to the front line employees in the warehouse and in the stores,” he said. 

Soukup also expressed concern about the manufacturing sector as the health crisis wears on. “We are starting to see SKU rationalization – vendors are having to prioritize what items they’re going to make. That’s going to ramp up over the next four to six weeks that could cause other out of stock issues,” he said. To help counter that, “we communicate daily with our distributors and just about weekly with our vendors. In this unprecedented time, our primary distributors, KeHE and UNFI, have done a phenomenal job. The broker community, too, including Presence Marketing, has done a great job for us in terms of serving as a liaison between the brands and what’s going on in the stores.” In times of crisis, “you understand who your partners are pretty quickly,” Soukup added.

Distributors See Fundamental Shift in Demand
At UNFI, one of the nation’s leading distributors of natural products, EVP of Supplier Services John Raiche has noted some big changes as a result of the pandemic. “The big difference between April and March is we’ve seen a fundamental shift in demand as students come home from college, people are staying home, and the food service expenditure is gone. The infrastructure was not designed to handle a sudden shift of that magnitude,” he said. While retailers are no longer placing such massive orders, there was a period of time at the end of March where on some evenings orders coming in were 400% of capacity, Raiche noted. UNFI, which also has placed a large focus on worker safety and incentives, hired more than 1,500 people since the beginning of March.

For Raiche, flexibility and communication are key right now. “We are trying to be as flexible and creative as possible with our suppliers on purchase orders, and we are trying to communicate with the industry and reach out to suppliers to share with them what we see, to offer to work with them, and to provide updates in terms of demand and opportunity,” he said. 

“For the team here internally, from receivers and collectors to drivers and the supply management team, there’s a real sense of purpose. People are open to working longer hours and doing whatever is needed. We’re spending a tremendous amount of time thinking about what the future holds, Raiche shared. “When it started, many people were thinking it would be like a light switch. Everything I read is that any transition back to normalcy will take place over a good amount of time. For our manufacturers, this demand is not going to go back to the old normal anytime soon.”

At KeHE Distributors, “our first priority is the safety of warehouse associates, professional drivers and in-store sales reps – the ones that are so important, the critical essential workers in this situation, said Scott Weber, EVP of Merchandising. “Our second priority is servicing retailers and suppliers to try to keep up with unprecedented demand. We’ve developed partnerships with food service distributors to align all our capacity to meet the massive demand in our industry. The third priority is giving back. Through our KeHE Cares philanthropic program, we are supporting those most affected by the COVID crisis.”

Weber added that while it may be a difficult time to introduce new products, “our overall category management and merchandising team remains heavily focused on innovation because we know that when those retailers get back to new items and category reviews, we’ve got to have a robust line to offer.” As such, KeHE revamped a “Trend Finder” event, originally scheduled for Natural Products Expo West, into a virtual event in order to meet with new suppliers. “The most important thing right now is working with our suppliers to ensure we have the flow of inbound product to KeHE that enables us to serve our customers,” he said.

Blair Kellison, CEO of Traditional Medicinals, a pioneering manufacturer of natural and organic teas, remarked that sales of tea in grocery was up 41% in the last month – “unheard of!” he exclaimed. Kellison often comes to work at 6:00 am to stand in the parking lot “just so I can say thank you to our workers,” he said. “If the workers are coming here every day, I should be here every day. These 120 workers are keeping our entire company going.”

Natural Products Industry on Front Lines of Coronavirus Crisis

Photo: Empty produce shelves at Whole Foods Market, Longmont, CO, March 13, 2020; Compass Natural

By Steven Hoffman

Editor’s Note: Since this article was prepared for publication, it was reported this week that employees at Amazon, Instacart and Whole Foods Market were planning to stage walkouts or “sick-outs” due to worker safety concerns. A handful of workers at Whole Foods Market locations in Huntingdon Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Chicago and New York have tested positive for coronavirus, raising employee concerns. Many grocers are installing plexiglass sneeze guards to protect cashiers from coronavirus. This article originally appeared in New Hope Network’s IdeaXchange and will appear in Presence Marketing’s April 2020 newsletter edition.

From the moment in early March when New Hope Network first announced the postponement of Natural Products Expo West – what Forbes Magazine referred to as the “Super Bowl of natural CPG” – to later in the month when UNFI CEO Steve Spinner joined a group of food, retail and distribution leaders at the White House to help ensure that America’s grocery shelves stay stocked – no small feat during the panic buying rush of the past few weeks – the COVID-19 pandemic has put the natural products industry on the front lines of the coronavirus crisis.

There have been many challenges – and a few opportunities – associated with this position. Stores find themselves short staffed and have had to cut hours to deep clean and restock empty shelves. Staffs are stretched thin. Restaurants and food service operations have had to shut down, putting many out of work. Long lines and controlled entry have been reported in some stores. Many retailers are dedicating Senior Hours before the stores open to the general public to give elderly people a chance to have access to product before the rush.

On the other hand, retailers are hiring, often providing jobs for laid-off restaurant and food service workers. Natural products grocers including Whole Foods Market and Natural
Grocers are offering interim incentives on top of current hourly rates to keep and recruit labor. Whole Foods is partnering with Amazon to expand resources and capacity for door drop and home delivery. Kroger CEO Rodney McMullen told CNBC in late March that the Cincinnati-based grocer, which operates 2,800 stores in 35 states, hired 2,000 people in March to keep up with increased demand from the coronavirus outbreak, and still has 10,000 openings to fill. Walmart announced it wants to hire 150,000 temporary workers through May, and Amazon is hiring an additional 100,000 workers to deal with coronavirus demand.

Sales, too, are through the roof for natural products retailers and CPG stores across the country as people stock up on a month's worth of groceries and staple goods instead of a typical week’s worth. Food Dive reported that sales of staples soared in March, indicating that consumers were preparing for the long haul. Add to that the fact that, with the closing of restaurants and cafes in many states, and with the call for social distancing, people are now eating at home, putting further strain on conventional and natural foods retail markets.

“You Need to Get Out on the Floor and Stock Shelves!”
For Gabe Nabors, CEO of the Mustard Seed Market & Cafe, with two full-service natural foods supermarkets and a bakery in Ohio and also renowned for its restaurants and catering, the stores have pivoted to offer in-store take-out meal solutions for its customers as the state of Ohio in March called for the closing of bars and restaurants. Mustard Seed has been promoting this expanded service on social media, and recently posted the steps it is taking to sanitize its stores, ensure product availability, and protect workers and customers.

“We are packaging our most popular soups from our restaurant in ‘fresh or freeze’ containers and are ramping up in-store prepared foods,” Nabors said. “We’re pivoting from banquets and catering to contacting assisted living homes, local nonprofits, hospices and elsewhere to let them know we have healthy prepared foods available for takeout. We’re also in talks with Instacart to expedite the launch of a delivery service. A large percentage of food sales in America is through restaurants and food service; with that closed, it puts added pressure on the grocery stores. As such, our entire team has been stocking shelves - if you have an office job and it’s not mission critical - you need to get out on the floor and stock shelves!” Nabors added about managing the current crisis situation. 

“We and our distributors have trucks running nonstop throughout our 20 state system, but it’s still a limited number of pallets per load,” said Alan Lewis, Director of Public Policy for Natural Grocers. “To better serve demand, we've curtailed the delivery of water, which is generally available locally, to focus instead on providing staple goods, produce and perishables. Our stores have been the calmest, most organized places to shop and our customers have been exemplary in not hoarding, and helping create a sense of calm and the feeling that we are all in this together,” Lewis observed. "People have been so cordial and kind to each other and thanking everyone in the stores for making the food available,” he said.

“Currently, there is plenty of food ready to be delivered in the supply chain. The outages are not shortages,” said Lewis. To ensure steady supply, he feels that food workers, from agriculture to manufacturing and retail, should be termed ‘essential workers.’ “We’ve been in conversation with the Colorado Department of Agriculture and others asking them not to stop essential agricultural workers,” he said. “As a result, CDA has notified law enforcement officials, requesting that agriculture workers be able to travel to and from work,” he added.

“People working overtime in delivery, back of house, stocking shelves, cashiers, e-commerce fulfillment – they are now critical infrastructure to keeping this country running. We should be cognizant of the stress on store staff and provide more resources to help them, for example, living wages, free child care, paid sick leave, collective bargaining rights, proper protective equipment, etc.,” said Errol Schweizer, retail and brand veteran and former head of grocery purchasing for Whole Foods Market. “The cooks, clerks, packers, loaders – the folks that often are poorly paid, overworked and invisible – how often have we heard pundits refer to them as unskilled? Now that everyone sees how crucial – and skilled – they are, we need to assure they are treated with dignity and respect.”

Industry Responds to Heightened Demand
For distributors, which have received generally positive reviews in responding to the crisis, sales are up dramatically, too. Leading natural products distributor UNFI's stock more than doubled in late March as consumers stocked up. "It is important for all Americans to know that they can continue to count on companies like ours to keep stores well-stocked with a variety of food and wellness products during this critical period,” Spinner said in a statement. "In addition to having business continuity and safety plans in place to help keep America fed, UNFI is supplementing its coordination with federal, state, and local government agencies by now collaborating directly with the White House and industry peers. We firmly believe that increased levels of public-private collaboration can further enhance UNFI's around-the-clock efforts to meet our customers current and future needs.” 

Natural and organic products manufacturers, too, are scrambling to satisfy increased demand. In a LinkedIn post, Wayne Wu, General Partner of VMG Partners, observed, "We're hearing many shelf stable food, beverage and supplement brands are generally doing well in brick and mortar stores as consumers stock up, but also seeing a 50%+ sales lift in the past couple of weeks in their e-commerce or grocery delivery channels, such as Amazon, Walmart.com, DTC or Instacart, as consumers are potentially pantry loading, but may lead to more permanent behavior change in how they purchase their more consumable-type products that they’ve traditionally purchased at a brick and mortar location to a more permanent lift online for these type of consumable items.”

Working from home is not stopping Steve Wangler, VP of Sales for The Good Crisp Company, maker of all natural canister chips. Working with Presence Marketing as its broker, Wangler said, “We’ve been in contact with every single field and accounting rep of Presence Marketing. Even sidelined, together we are engaging with retailers virtually, keeping them apprised of stock situations, asking what they need, etc. The entire Presence team has been very proactive, highly responsive, highly engaged, and looking for ways to support retailers and brands. Also, we are attracting consumers that are new to our brand through our online efforts, and we’re hoping we’ll keep those consumers once they experience our product." 

Noticing a trend accompanying consumers’ response to the coronavirus crisis, Eric Schnell, cofounder of the marketing collective BeyondBrands and mood33, a cannabis and CBD based beverage line, was informed by his Florida distributor that mood33’s top-selling CBD SKU, Energy, was replaced by its Calm formula in March. “It’s an indicator of how stressed people are feeling right now,” Schnell observed.

"As a service provider we are doing our best to support our natural products clients, and on the brand side, we are seeing an immediate uptick in sales,” he said. "Every manufacturer I’ve spoken with is still operating at full capacity, including supplements, beverages and food, to meet demand from both brick and mortar and e-commerce.”

“Unity in the Community is Key”
The BeyondBrands team, like other natural products brokers, distributors and service providers throughout the country, is rising to the challenge and doing its best to help partner brands deal with retail demand. “Rather than going into stores to sell items, we are recommending going into stores and offering to help stock shelves,” Schnell said. “Connection and collaboration are key right now. More than ever, it feels like people need unity in the natural foods community. Whether you are on the service, brand or retail side, we are all in this together and we have to see ourselves through this, together.” 

At Dr. Bronner’s, demand for soap and hand sanitizer has spiked, and the company is doing its best to fulfill the increase in orders, said David and Michael Bronner in a
statement published on March 16. “In spite of our best efforts, constraints prevent us from fully meeting orders: our hand sanitizer, for example, can only be produced at FDA-licensed drug manufacturing facilities, and is being produced at 600% our usual rate.”

In addition, the Bronner brothers wrote, “We are allocating a reserve of 2% of all hand sanitizer production to donate to at-risk communities and the organizations that serve them, so they have access to our hand sanitizer, as well. Please also buy only what you think you need, so that everyone who needs our products can obtain them. This is an important time to remember that we are all connected and need to look out for each other, now more than ever,” they wrote.

As for New Hope Network, after announcing that Expo West was not just postponed but cancelled for 2020, the company that leads communications efforts in the natural industry announced in a video update on March 20 that it would provide assistance to small businesses hurt by the cancellation. 

“Due to the decision to cancel voluntarily and without being asked to do so by local, state or federal edict or other force majeure circumstances, our insurance provisions were not triggered and significant costs and liabilities were incurred by New Hope,” said Carlotta Mast, New Hope’s Senior VP of Content. However, she continued, “To help support those most impacted by the Expo West cancellation, our parent company Informa has established a $5 million fund that will be disbursed under the guidance of an independent advisory council made up of 20 industry leaders. The advisory council is working on this task now and is aiming to have its guidance delivered to the New Hope Network leadership team by the week of April 6,” she reported.

The company announced it is focusing its energies on the upcoming Natural Products Expo East, slated for Sept. 23-26, 2020, in Philadelphia, and is issuing a full credit for any Expo West exhibitor or sponsorship fees, in which the credit can be applied to Expo East, Expo West 2021, or to its media and market research publications. Expo West badge registration and education fees also will be fully refunded in the coming weeks. New Hope also announced a free product directory listing for 2020 Expo West exhibitors along with upcoming webinars and education, and referred further questions to its Expo West FAQ page.

In closing, John Mackey, CEO of Whole Foods Market, summarized how our industry has risen to the occasion in serving community, workers and customers during the coronavirus crisis. In an email to constituents, he wrote, “If you’ve shopped our stores in recent weeks, you’ve experienced our team members’ dedication and diligence to serving your community during a time of uncertainty. None of this is lost on us… As a company, Whole Foods Market is adjusting to the current circumstances that all of us are facing during this unprecedented time. We believe that the service we provide as a grocer is an essential one, and we are committed to continuing to serve our customers in a safe and responsible manner, both in our stores and through delivery. Thank you for your kindness and patience as our team continues to work hard to serve our customers and communities. Please take care.”