COVID Crisis Update: Natural Products Retailers Respond to New Normal by Opening New Stores

This article originally appeared in Presence Marketing’s July 2020 newsletter edition and on New Hope Network’s IdeaXchange.

By Steven Hoffman

As the United States slowly re-opens for business with the coronavirus pandemic entering its fifth month, many Americans are still playing it safe as cases continue to surge in states and regions throughout the country. Restaurants and bars are re-opening, however, with crowd capacities limited by public health regulations, food service businesses are still nowhere near where they once were. And, as the pandemic has shuttered day camps, benched Little League games, cancelled concerts and limited other warm-weather activities, families and kids are staying much closer to home this summer.

As such, grocery stores – including the nation’s natural foods stores – continue to play an essential role in feeding Americans during the pandemic crisis. Several natural food retailers we talked to anticipate there will not be much of a traditional “summer slump” in sales this season.

In fact, a number of retailers are taking advantage of the moment to open new stores. Boulder-based Alfalfa’s Market announced in mid-June it was taking over a former Lucky’s Market location in nearby Longmont to open a third store to serve Colorado’s Front Range population. Los Angeles-based Erewhon is adding two new stores to its five-store chain in the next 12 months. PCC just opened its 14th natural foods store in the Seattle area; and while it postponed Grand Opening celebrations, Natural Grocers opened a new store in Cedar City, UT, on June 10. Publicly held natural products retailer Sprouts, which CEO Jack Sinclair describes as “more of a farmers market than a grocer,” is moving ahead with plans to open 20 stores in key markets across the country, and like many retailers, has expanded at-home delivery and curbside pickup, as well as significantly increased its e-commerce sales. In addition, pandemic notwithstanding, conventional grocer Schnuck’s unveiled its brand new “EatWell” natural food concept store in Colombia, MO, on June 24. 

To help reassure customers and workers, many of these retailers have enacted strict COVID guidelines. For example, Maryland-based MOMs Organic Market published COVID-19 Action Steps on its website, and Natural Grocers also informs its customers about COVID safety on its website.

“Grocery Is the Business to Be In”
“Our comps are off the charts,” said Tony Antoci, CEO and owner of Erewhon, the legendary natural foods chain in Los Angeles. Antoci, a food service distribution veteran, purchased the original single Erewhon location in 2011, and self-financed the growth of the chain to five stores, with two additional locations planned to open between now and March 2021. “We’ve seen a 300-400% increase in grocery and produce sales since the coronavirus crisis began, he said. “Protein sales grew four-fold until the end of May; now we are starting to see a leveling off, but our deli and prepared food sales are increasing as our customer base starts to get back to a new normal. We also ramped up our web ordering and delivery capabilities – something we were trying to engage but never got around to – and we had a healthy online business in a week. Now, we are averaging 200-250 online orders across five stores per day. If this was a restaurant, I would not open a new location, but grocery is the business to be in,” Antoci said.

At Jimbo’s Naturally, a five-store independently owned chain in San Diego, customer counts have decreased since the coronavirus crisis began, but they’re more than made up for in the increased average purchase, noted founder and CEO Jimbo Somek. “People don’t want to make as many trips if they can avoid it, but the average ticket is twice as high as it was before the pandemic,” he said. Somek also admitted, “It’s one thing to plan for increased demand, however, it’s another thing when the stores are doing two to three times the sales they were doing the day before. There were a lot of long days,” he said. When asked about potentially opening a new store, Somek replied, “I don’t know if it’s a good time or not to open new stores. The challenge is to know where all this is going,” he reflected.

UNFI Stock Surges
In serving all this retail growth, leading natural foods distributor UNFI (NYSE: UNFI) saw its stock price surge 45.8% in the past three months. “Several food companies are benefiting from rising demand owing to increased at-home consumption and stockpiling trends amid coronavirus,” wrote analysts at Zacks Equity Research in late June. “The packaged food space is especially gaining on such trends as the lockdown has prompted shoppers to buy and hoard packaged food and beverages. This has boosted sales of several food players, including United Natural Foods Inc. (UNFI). United Natural’s ability to cater to the rising demand amid the pandemic reflects its robust market position and the important role it plays in North America’s food supply chain,” the analysts concluded.

In related news, Sprouts Farmers Market (Nasdaq: SFM) was ranked on June 18 by Zacks Equity Research as a top growth stock, acknowledging that it is a long-term beneficiary of the pandemic. Kroger (NYSE: KR), too, has been outperforming the stock market as a beneficiary of the “eat at home” trend driven by the pandemic, along with the company’s moves to cut $1 billion in costs and invest in digital growth. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Robert Ohmes reiterated a Buy rating on June 19, noting that he believes Kroger will continue to see strong sales even as COVID-related restrictions are lifted in many areas. Natural Grocers (NYSE: NGVC), too, saw its stock price more than double to well over $12 per share at the end of June from a low of $5.80 on March 12 when the pandemic first struck the U.S.

Consumers Are Leaning in to a Healthy Lifestyle
Driving sales is a growing number of consumers seeking out healthier, more nutritious products during the COVID-19 crisis to boost immunity and health. “Far from abandoning their natural lifestyle during COVID-19, natural products shoppers are widening their preferences, seeking and avoiding various ingredients, label claims and certifications,” states COVID-19 and Navigating the Path Ahead: Supporting The Natural Products Consumer, a report published on May 29, 2020, by leading market research firms SPINS and IRI. Leading the charge, said SPINS/IRI, are paleo products, plant-based meat alternatives, baking products and staple items, household cleaning items, soap and bath preparations, natural remedies to help support immunity and reduce stress and anxiety, and value-based products as many people struggle through unprecedented economic times brought on by the COVID-19 crisis.

In addition, according to Laura Batcha, CEO of the Organic Trade Association, consumers are purchasing more organic products than ever before. Organic products sales topped $55 billion in 2019, up 4.6% from the previous year, and as health comes into focus, many organic categories have seen demand increase even further. Organic produce sales jumped 50% in the early days of the pandemic, and by spring 2020, sales were still up by more than 20%, Batcha noted.

“It’s hard to know what’s ahead of us, but consumers will continue to trust in and depend on the organic label,” said Batcha. “Organic producers and processors – indeed the entire organic supply chain – have been working around the clock through this difficult time to keep our stores filled with healthy, toxic-free and sustainably produced organic food and products. Organic is going to be there for the consumer.”

Speaking at the United Fresh LIVE virtual conference on June 17, Tonya Antle, cofounder of the Organic Produce Network (OPN), corroborated that organic produce has outperformed the conventional produce category at retail during the pandemic. According to Antle, OPN’s latest retail scan data show that both volume and dollar sales of organic produce were up more than 16% during the month of May. In addition, according to OTA data, organic staple categories including dairy, eggs, bread, pasta, rice, grains and baking supplies are expected to see increased growth in 2020, along with organic vitamins and immunity-related products.

Controversy over Face Masks
The surge in grocery and natural products sales has certainly not come without its challenges. The wearing of face masks, required in many municipalities and public and commercial places, for instance, has become divisive and some conflicts in stores have happened. According to TribLive, more than 30 lawsuits have been filed against Giant Eagle over the grocery chain’s face mask policy, claiming it is discriminatory under the Americans with Disabilities Act. The Mirror UK reported on June 22 about a Walmart incident in which a defiant customer refusing to wear a mask got into a scuffle with a security guard.

“It’s a very difficult position for us to put our staff in, whether it’s an 18-, 19-year-old college student working, or a single mom, a dad,” Bryan Neiman, operator of Neiman’s Family Market, a small Michigan grocery chain, told Time Magazine in reference to face masks. Neiman’s has signs posted asking customers to wear facial coverings, and shoppers can get a mask at customer service, he said. But, according to Time, he’s telling his employees not to confront mask-less customers, for fear of triggering a confrontation. The magazine reported that similar incidents have happened all over the country.

Texas-based grocer H-E-B, which initially required customers to wear face masks in mid-April, announced in early June that it was relaxing its policy; now, shoppers are no longer required to wear face masks in its stores, reported Grocery Dive. The chain still encourages customers to wear face coverings. In addition, wearing masks will remain mandatory for employees and vendors, Grocery Dive reported.

Seasonal Promotions Affected in 2020
As retailers scrambled to respond to the tectonic shifts in consumer buying behavior brought on by the coronavirus crisis, any focus on seasonal sales and promotions was stalled, said Donnie Baldwin, Senior Director of Conventional Grocery for the Central and Western U.S. for leading natural products broker Presence Marketing / Dynamic Presence. “For 2020, we are staying busy serving our retail partners’ immediate needs,” he said, but the crisis impacted promotional sales and planning for such holidays as Easter, Mother’s Day, Memorial Day, Father’s Day and more. “However, while retailers may miss the seasonal sales this year, they’ve got their hands full keeping the store shelves stocked as full as they can,” he said. 

“The good news is the average dollar ring per basket is up, but while the head count of customers shopping in stores is down – or they are shopping quickly through the store – it has impacted sales of seasonal items and impulse items,” Baldwin said. “As we talk with account executives around the country, buyers are still focused on staple items. They want to make sure they’ve got control of the supply chain on staples. That’s been a priority, and the good news is we are starting to see them get a handle on that.”

Baldwin’s counterpart, Jim Crotty, Senior Director of Conventional Grocery for the Eastern U.S. for Presence Marketing, added that retailers are looking at Fall and the holidays, but many are still not quite ready to focus on new items, or execution has been slowed. “Operations and taking care of their people are coming first right now,” said Crotty. “Come September, they might start bringing new products in; it is just happening at a slower pace. We are presenting holiday items such as eggnog and pumpkin flavors now and will continue to do so. Hopefully, we will be able to see things open up in November/December,” he added.

Meanwhile, Baldwin noted that some of his team members have been getting creative in leveraging technology and developing YouTube video presentations for retail partners, a sample of which can be viewed here.

“I really feel that by late in the Third Quarter and early in the Fourth Quarter, things are going to start opening up and retailers will start getting back to the basics,” Baldwin predicted. “This industry is very adaptive and resilient and we always look to find a way to carry on.”

Resources

The Pandemic Shows Us the Genius of Supermarkets: A Short History of the Stores that – Even Now – Keep Us Supplied with an Abundance of Choices
Atlantic Magazine, July/August 2020
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/supermarkets-are-a-miracle/612244/

Market Research Report: COVID-19 and Navigating the Path Ahead – Supporting the Natural Products Consumer
SPINS/IRI, May 29, 2020
https://www.iriworldwide.com/IRI/media/Library/SPINS-Joint-Thought-Leadership-5-28-20.pdf

Tracking Coronavirus Closures at Food and Beverage Factories
By Food Dive, Updated June 19, 2020
https://www.fooddive.com/news/tracking-coronavirus-closures-at-food-and-beverage-factories/576559/?mc_cid=5c0261a1e5&mc_eid=49fe8c77e3