State of Natural: Industry on Track to Reach $318.6B in Sales in 2024 and $386.4B by 2028
This article first appeared in the November 2024 issue of Presence Marketing’s newsletter.
By Steven Hoffman
The natural and organic products industry is on a solid growth curve, supported by rising consumer demand for better for you products, according to the editors of Nutrition Business Journal (NBJ).
Surpassing $300 billion in sales on 4.8% growth in 2023, NBJ projects sales of natural, organic, regenerative and sustainable products in the natural channel will continue to grow at about 5% per year to reach $318.6 billion in 2024, and $386.42 billion by 2028, with the market “showing no signs of slowing down.”
Dominated by the natural and organic food and beverage sector, which commands three times the market share of supplements and seven times that of the natural living category, “the natural products industry has infiltrated every part of brick-and-mortar and online retail and is outpacing conventional products’ growth. Slow and steady is winning this race,” reported the NBJ editorial team in its State of Natural Report: Four-Year Forecast, 2024 - 2028, published in September 2024.
Sales of natural, organic and functional food and beverages account for 69.3% of the overall natural products market. According to NBJ, this category will continue to dominate the market, predicting that sales will grow to $220.78 billion in 2024, and will reach $265.2 billion in sales in 2028. Strong growth in this sector is driven by improved product quality and taste, global flavors, and plant-based, paleo and carnivore diet trends, among others.
According to NBJ, the majority, or 63.7% of natural and organic food and beverage sales are occurring in mass market retail stores, a trend that will continue as natural products become more accessible across the country. Traditional natural food retail stores command 28% of the natural and organic food and beverage market.
Supplements: The Roller Coaster Ride Is Over
For the dietary supplements category, “the roller coaster ride is over,” NBJ reported. “After a sobering deflationary period following stratospheric growth during the Covid-19 pandemic, the supplements industry is settling into steady, stable growth in every category. With the combined Sports Nutrition and Meal Replacements category and Herbs and Botanicals leading the way, supplements are projected to grow at around 5% each year through 2028, from $67.43 billion in 2024 to $82.81 billion. Many consumers who discovered supplements in their panicked searches for immunity hacks during the pandemic appear to be sticking with the vitamins and herbs they started taking, and the industry is mainstreaming as a result,” said NBJ.
While sports nutrition and meal replacements are projected to grow between 5% and 7% over the next four years, sales of vitamins and minerals, which took a post-pandemic hit (NBJ predicts growth of only 2.1% in this category in 2024), are projected to grow 3.7% in 2028. However, vitamins and minerals control the largest market share (30%) among the dietary supplement categories.
Herbs and botanicals are projected to be the fastest growing supplement sector, and annual growth will reach 7% by 2028. Market share for sports nutrition and meal replacements is expected to remain steady over the next four years, ranging between 26% and 28%. Herbs and botanicals, too, are predicted to maintain a steady market share of about 20% over the next four years.
NBJ also noted that in the dietary supplements category, in particular, direct to consumer channels are driving significant growth. “With annual growth between 6% and 7% — nearly triple that of Natural and Specialty—the Direct-to- Consumer channel is driving growth during the forecast period, while Natural and Specialty continues to lose market share, falling from 26% in 2024 to 23.2% in 2028,” NBJ predicted.
Natural Living: Small but Growing Fast
As consumers learn more about the dangers of environmental toxins, microplastics and ingredients used in conventional beauty care products from mainstream media, social media influencers and others, they are becoming increasingly aware of the fact that it’s not just what you put in your body, but also what you put on your body. While the Natural Living sector takes up the smallest slice of the natural products industry pie at a 9.5% market share, it is expected outpace overall industry growth, growing at 6% per year from $30.38 billion to an estimated $38.41 billion in sales in 2028.
According to NBJ, the natural and specialty channel is projected to lose market share of natural living products between 2024 and 2028, but it will remain the second largest channel behind mass market. By 2028, sales of natural living products in mass market will be more than double those of natural and specialty. Also, while mass market and e-commerce are driving much of the natural living market, practitioners and multi-level/network marketing “are the only channels projected to see increased growth throughout the forecast period,” said NBJ.
The principal analysts, authors and editors of the Nutrition Business Journal State of Natural Report: Four-Year Forecast, 2024 – 2028 were market research analyst Erika Craft, industry analyst Christian Irwin, senior editor Robyn Lawrence, managing editor Hannah Esper and content & insights director Bill Giebler. Sources for the data include SPINS, IRI Group, Natural Foods Merchandiser Magazine, New Hope Network and others. The report is available for $125.
Learn More
Nutrition Business Journal State of Natural Report: Four-Year Forecast, 2024 - 2028
Presence News: Natural Products Industry Reaches $303.3 Billion in Sales in 2023 on 4.8% Growth
Steven Hoffman is Managing Director of Compass Natural, providing public relations, brand marketing, social media and strategic business development services to natural, organic, sustainable and hemp/CBD products businesses. Contact steve@compassnaturalmarketing.com.
New Cutting-Edge Software Tool for Nutritional & Dietary Supplement Brands Streamlines Marketing Content Review, Reduces Regulatory Risk
BOULDER, Colo. (July 6, 2023) – More often than not, marketers of nutritional products, dietary supplements and functional foods are faced with multiple hurdles and confusing regulations about what they can say about their products. Now, an innovative, easy-to-use software program can help brands solve this problem, reduce costs and reduce hassle with the click of a button.
Developed by regulatory expert and nutritional products industry veteran Asa Waldstein, Apex Compliance™ finds risky terms and phrases and suggests lower-risk alternatives on websites, YouTube videos and in uploaded content. Apex Compliance™ is a user-friendly software tool designed for brands, marketing agencies, law firms, consultants, investors and banks that serve the dietary supplement, conventional and functional food and cannabis industries.
Apex Compliance™ focuses on three areas of regulatory risk, including websites, YouTube videos and content review before publishing. It provides a detailed report showing the exact URL location of each keyword, the paragraph it is used in, the risk rating, lower-risk alternatives and notes. This provides a line-by-line playbook on how to reduce website and YouTube regulatory risk. Apex Compliance™ also reviews uploaded blogs and social content before posting, and it streamlines the process by flagging keywords and simplifies swapping high-risk phrases for lower-risk alternatives.
Apex Compliance™ is keyword-based and allows the user to easily add their keywords, risk rating, lower-risk alternative words and notes to help with future regulatory reviews. The application enables users to compile searchable keyword lists such as Top Sustainability Lawsuit Phrases or Common FDA/FTC Trigger Words. Apex Compliance™ comes preloaded with 50 common phrases in warning letters and plaintiff lawsuits, such as lowers cholesterol, anxiety, depression and pain. Each phrase has a risk rating and, when applicable, possible lower-risk alternative language is provided.
“Regulatory reviews that used to take hours can now be conducted in seconds,” said Apex Compliance founder Asa Waldstein. “Apex Compliance was developed as a tool for my consulting company, Supplement Advisory Group, and it became so useful industry colleagues started asking to use it. Apex Compliance saves time when reviewing marketing content and is a teaching tool that helps build in-house regulatory expertise.”
“Apex Compliance is truly a game-changing technology to help you keep pace in a challenging and ever-changing regulatory world. It’s affordable and perfect, especially for small and medium-sized startups that can’t afford a full regulatory department,” said Tim Gerke, president of leading supplement maker Allergy Research Group, based in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Apex Compliance™ is a monthly subscription service that offers steep discounts for one-year commitments. Learn more, sign up or schedule a free demo here.
For inquiries, contact support@ApexComplianceProgram.com.
About Supplement Advisory Group
Apex Compliance™ is a patent-pending software application that is a subsidiary of Supplement Advisory Group, a consulting company founded in Boulder County, Colorado, in 2020 by industry veteran Asa Waldstein. Supplement Advisory Group takes a preventative approach to regulatory risk and specializes in practical regulatory support for dietary supplement marketers. The Group focuses on finding marketing risks and providing practical lower-risk solutions on the web, social media and product labels. This includes compliant marketing strategy review and claims risk analysis. Learn more about Supplement Advisory Group’s services here.
For consulting and speaking inquiries, contact Assistant@AsaWaldstein.com.
About Asa Waldstein
Asa Waldstein is a Certified Clinical Herbalist and a 20-year dietary supplement executive who is principal of the consulting company Supplement Advisory Group, a boutique group focusing on marketing risk analysis and practical marketing solutions for the web and social media. He writes the weekly Warning Letter Wednesday post, exploring interesting enforcement trends and marketing best practices. He chairs the American Herbal Products Association's (AHPA) Cannabis Committee and sits on the Naturally Boulder board of directors.
Follow Asa Waldstein on LinkedIn, Twitter and Warning Letter Wednesday blog.