Presence MarketWatch 2025

This article first appeared in the January 2025 issue of Presence Marketing’s newsletter.

By Steven Hoffman

With the Trump administration returning to the White House and the GOP controlling both the Senate and House of Representatives by narrow margins, the year 2025 is sure to bring significant change to regulatory policy, business and the economy, not just for the U.S. but also the world. To help leaders in the natural channel navigate the opportunities and challenges ahead, Presence Marketing will track and report on these issues over the course of the year ahead. Read on for a snapshot of some of the major issues that will impact the natural, organic and nutritional products market over the coming year.

Tariffs and Food Prices
President-elect Donald Trump ran on a campaign to lower grocery prices, which rose 23% since the onset of the Covid pandemic in Spring 2020. Food inflation has slowed over the past year, according to NBC News, and is now less than 2% as energy prices and supply chains have stabilized. Yet, experts caution that a combination of tariffs and mass deportations could have a further destabilizing effect on agriculture, food production and grocery prices. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs up to 60% on goods from China, and a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada – all countries that are significant exporters of food and other products to the U.S. market.

In a Time Magazine interview in December 2024, Trump acknowledged it may be difficult to bring down grocery prices, saying, “Look, they got them up. I’d like to bring them down. It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up.” According to a study from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada would have the biggest impact on prices for autos, vegetables, fuel, prepared food and animal products, reported CNN Business. The U.S. relies on Mexico for 89% of its imported avocados and 91% of foreign-grown tomatoes. “Higher tariffs on Mexico and Canada will … put upward pressure on U.S. food prices,” the Peterson Institute said. While it’s too soon to determine whether Trump will actually impose tariffs or if trade agreements can be reached to prevent them, “The only certainty is that new tariffs will be costly for the United States,” said the Peterson Institute study’s authors.

Food, Farm Workers and Mass Deportation
California’s Monterey County is the fourth-largest crop-producing county in the nation, with the agriculture industry there contributing $4.4 billion to the economy, and with an estimated 55,000 farm workers, including many who are undocumented. As such, the area’s growers have expressed concern that much of their workforce could disappear as a result of potential mass deportations once the Trump administration takes office. In an interview on Dec. 19, 2024, with NBC Bay Area News, Monterey County Farm Bureau CEO Norm Groot said, “It will absolutely impact food prices at the consumer level. If it impacts local and nationwide supplies, that will have a price increase.” NBC reported the farm bureau is teaming up with county officials and other stakeholders to create a task force in addressing local concerns around mass deportations, including concerns around family and child separation. "It's interesting that four years ago during the pandemic, they were essential," Groot said. "And now all of a sudden we’re looking at it from a different perspective and trying to understand how that dynamic has changed." 

And it’s not just Monterey County – while it’s estimated that undocumented workers make up only 5% of the total U.S. workforce, the share of undocumented workers across the nation’s food supply chain is at least 16%, reported Successful Farming. In some industries this number is higher – the Idaho Dairymen’s Association estimated that nearly 90% of the state’s dairy workers were born outside of the U.S. According to a September 2024 study by the Peterson Institute, mass deportation could lead to a 10% increase in food prices. Between higher food prices that could come with proposed tariffs – and potential government bailouts funded by U.S. taxpayers to provide assistance to farmers affected by deportations – Americans could potentially get “double-whammied” by the higher costs and supply chain disruptions these proposed policies could bring.

RFK, FDA and the Nation’s Health
MAHA has become a rallying cry for many in the natural health and nutritional supplements industry as Congress weighs the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Kennedy, a lawyer, environmentalist and controversial health advocate, is Trump’s pick to lead the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), a Cabinet-level position that oversees the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Institutes of Health (NIH), and others.

On one hand, RFK’s team is weighing a rewrite to the FDA’s rules overseeing food additives and taking a hard look at the harmful chemicals and pesticides used in food production. On the other hand, RFK’s top lawyer Aaron Siri stirred controversy when it was reported in December 2024 by CNN and others that he had petitioned the FDA to revoke approval of the polio vaccine. The World Health Organization declared that polio was eradicated in 2019 but warned it could re-emerge if vaccination coverage declines. According to a Dec. 4, 2024, article in Forbes, Kennedy criticized the FDA in a post on X (formerly Twitter) for “suppressing” a wide range of items, including “psychedelics, peptides, stem cells, raw milk, hyperbaric therapies, chelating compounds, ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, vitamins, clean foods, sunshine, exercise, nutraceuticals, and anything else that advances human health and can’t be patented by Pharma.”

Kennedy will have an ally in Martin Makary, M.D., a surgeon, public policy researcher at Johns Hopkins University and a member of the National Academy of Medicine, and President-elect Trump’s choice to serve as FDA Commissioner. In September 2024, Makary joined RFK at a round table in Congress on health and nutrition, where he criticized how food in the U.S. is grown and processed. "We have poisoned our food supply, engineered highly addictive chemicals that we put into our food. We spray it with pesticides that kill pests. What do you think they do to our gut lining in our microbiome?" Makary said. In related news, Trump’s pick for Surgeon General, Dr. Janette Nesheiwat, a family medicine doctor who runs a chain of urgent care clinics in New York, was a regular Fox News contributor and is an advocate for nutritional supplements, marketing her own brand of dietary supplements called BC Boost, containing vitamins C, B-12, D and Zinc.

Brooke Rollins Nominated to Lead USDA
President-elect Trump in November nominated Brooke Rollins, President and CEO of the America First Policy Institute, a conservative think tank based in Texas, to lead the U.S. Department of Agriculture. “As our next Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke will spearhead the effort to protect American farmers, who are truly the backbone of our country,” Trump said in a statement. Rollins is a graduate of Texas A&M University, with an undergraduate degree in agriculture development. “From her upbringing in the small and agriculture-centered town of Glen Rose, Texas, to her years of leadership involvement with Future Farmers of America and 4H, to her generational family farming background, to guiding her four kids in their show cattle careers, Brooke has a practitioner’s experience, along with deep policy credentials in both nonprofit and government leadership at the state and national levels,” the statement said.

“We congratulate Brooke Rollins on her nomination as Secretary of Agriculture. This is an important moment for U.S. agriculture, and we are optimistic about the opportunities her leadership will bring to rural America,” Amy France, chairwoman of the National Sorghum Producers in Scott City, KS, told Successful Farming. "Sorghum farmers are at the forefront of innovation, contributing to domestic biofuels and heart-healthy, nutritious, ancient grain foods. We are eager to work with her to advance policies that strengthen the sorghum industry and benefit growers nationwide.”

“The Department of Agriculture plays a pivotal role in safeguarding our food supply, addressing food insecurity, managing our forests, as well as supporting America’s farmers and rural communities who are on the frontlines of the climate crisis,” said Rebecca Riley, Managing Director, Food and Agriculture, for the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). “Rollins needs to invest in America’s farmers – from small family farms to larger-scale operations – and to work toward a resilient and equitable food system that puts healthy food on the table, restores our soil, protects the climate, and safeguards the health of our communities … now is not the time to undermine climate-smart farming practices, favor industrial agriculture at the expense of small producers and consumers, or gut the nutrition programs that many Americans rely on,” Riley said.  

California’s AB 660 Sets Landmark Food Date Labeling Standards
California Governor Gavin Newsom in September 2024 signed into law the nation's first mandatory food date labeling reform bill. California Assembly Bill 660 (AB 660) standardizes the use of “Best If Used By” and “Use By” dates on food labels, and prohibits the use of “Sell By” dates. The new law requires manufacturers to use the same phrase for date labels across their products, reported Food Safety. Beginning July 1, 2026, companies selling food products in California must only use “Best If Used By” to indicate the date by which a product will reach its peak quality, and “Use By” to indicate the date by which a product’s safety can no longer be guaranteed. The use of consumer-facing “Sell By” dates will be prohibited to reduce the chances of consumers confusing “Sell By” dates with quality or safety dates.

“On grocery store shelves today, there are more than 50 differently phrased date labels on packaged food. Some phrases are used to communicate peak freshness of a product or when a product is no longer safe to eat. Others, like ‘Sell By,’ are used only to inform stock rotation in stores but mislead some consumers into thinking the product is no longer safe to eat. AB 660 will close this gap by requiring manufacturers to use the same phrase for date labels across their products,” NRDC said in a statement. 

Of course, as goes California, so goes the country. “AB 660 is game changing, not just for California, but for the country. It will be the first law of its kind to end the ridiculous confusion that causes consumers to throw out almost $15 billion of perfectly good food nationwide. It will also help reduce the significant toll that wasting food has on our planet,” Dana Gunders, President of reFED, told BioCycle Magazine. “Having to wonder whether our food is still good is an issue that we all have struggled with. Today’s signing of AB 660 is a monumental step to keep money in the pockets of consumers while helping the environment and the planet,” said Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, author of the bill.

Annual Gathering of Socially Responsible Investors

For Immediate Release:

Contact:

Steven Hoffman, Compass Natural Marketing, tel 303.807.1042, steve@compassnatural.com

Patrick Mitchell, for First Affirmative, tel 703.276.3266, pmitchell@hastingsgroup.com

Deepak Chopra, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus Headline Nation's Largest Annual Gathering of Socially Responsible Investors

Colorado Springs, CO (July 10, 2012) – Natural, organic and sustainable business-sector leaders have a unique opportunity to learn about the growing market for green investing at the 23rd Annual SRI Conference to be held October 2-4, 2012, at the Mohegan Sun Conference Center in Connecticut.

The SRI Conference on Sustainable, Responsible, Impact Investing is the nation's leading gathering of fund managers, investment bankers, investment advisors and other professionals in the socially responsible "conscious investor" market with an estimated $3 trillion under asset management.

The SRI Conference provides a unique bridge into the conscious investing market and how natural and organic products businesses are creating positive change and achieving profitability as they work to solve real social, environmental and health challenges. 

SRI investing in the United States continues to grow at a faster pace than the total universe of investment assets under professional management, according to the 2010 edition of the Social Investment Forum Foundation’s Report on Socially Responsible Investing Trends in the United States. Growth in SRI-related investments has increased more than 34 percent since 2007, while the broader universe of professionally managed assets has increased only 3 percent.

The 2012 SRI Conference (formerly known as SRI in the Rockies) is produced by First Affirmative Financial Network, and this year's event is the first to be held near major financial and business centers in New York and Boston. Visit www.SRIconference.com.

Plenary Speakers Include:

Deepak Chopra, Renowned Author and Pioneer in Mind-Body Medicine

Deepak Chopra, M.D., is a world-renowned author of more than 64 books and founder of the non-profit Chopra Foundation, with the mission to advance the cause of mind/body spiritual healing, education and research. Chopra is a fellow of the American College of Physicians, a member of the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists, adjunct professor of Executive Programs at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, and senior scientist with The Gallup Organization.

Muhammad Yunus, the Father of Microcredit, to Speak Opening Night

Nobel Laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus, who is widely regarded as the father of microcredit and also is the founder of Grameen Bank, will be the keynote speaker on October 2nd, the opening night of the SRI Conference. In March 2012, Fortune Magazinenamed Yunus “one of the 12 greatest entrepreneurs of our time.” In 2006, Professor Yunus and Grameen Bank were jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Professor Yunus began providing collateral free loans to the poor in his country of origin, Bangladesh. Originally called the Grameen Bank Project, it later became a full-fledged bank providing loans to the poor, mostly women, in rural Bangladesh. Today Grameen Bank has 8.4 million borrowers, 97 percent of whom are women, and disburses $1.5 billion each year. His microcredit idea hasspread across the world, including the industrialized countries of the West.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Takes on Sustainable Waste Recovery Challenges

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., president of the Waterkeeper Alliance and senior attorney for the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), will join Kim Jeffery, CEO of Nestlé Waters North America, the largest bottled water company in North America, to discuss corporate responsibility and sustainable waste recovery challenges. Their presentations will focus on the urgency of advancing more comprehensive waste recovery systems in the U.S., bottom line implications for companies, and how shareholder advocates are influencing corporations to mitigate shareholder risk.

From Chief Executives to Tribal Chiefs: Women Leaders Spotlighted at Conference

The 2012 SRI Conference features a number of women business and financial leaders, including Chief Lynn Malerba, the first female chief of the Mohegan Tribe; Barbara Krumsiek, CEO of Calvert Investments, one of the nation's leading SRI management companies with $12 billion under asset management; and Mindy Lubber, J.D., President of Ceres, the leading U.S. coalition of investors and environmental leaders working to improve corporate ESG practices, and director of the Investor Network on Climate Risk.

About the SRI Conference

The SRI Conference (www.SRIconference.com) is the leading forum for the Sustainable, Responsible, Impact (SRI) investing industry in the North America. For its 23rd year, The SRI Conference will be held at the Mohegan Sun Convention Center in southeastern Connecticut, Oct. 2–4, 2012. For more information about the agenda, speaking, or sponsorship, or for media inquiries, contact Krystala Kalil, tel 888.774.2663, krystala@SRIconference.com; or contact Steven Hoffman, tel 303.807.1042, steve@compassnatural.com. Register online atwww.SRIconference.com/register.

About First Affirmative Financial Network

First Affirmative Financial Network, LLC (www.FirstAffirmative.com) is an independent fee- only Registered Investment Advisor (SEC File #801-56587) offering investment consulting and asset management services through a nationwide network of investment professionals who specialize in serving socially conscious investors. First Affirmative produces the annual SRI Conference, the premier gathering of investors and investment professionals focused on sustainable, responsible, impact investing in North America (www.SRIconference.com).