Presence MarketWatch 2025
This article first appeared in the January 2025 issue of Presence Marketing’s newsletter.
By Steven Hoffman
With the Trump administration returning to the White House and the GOP controlling both the Senate and House of Representatives by narrow margins, the year 2025 is sure to bring significant change to regulatory policy, business and the economy, not just for the U.S. but also the world. To help leaders in the natural channel navigate the opportunities and challenges ahead, Presence Marketing will track and report on these issues over the course of the year ahead. Read on for a snapshot of some of the major issues that will impact the natural, organic and nutritional products market over the coming year.
Tariffs and Food Prices
President-elect Donald Trump ran on a campaign to lower grocery prices, which rose 23% since the onset of the Covid pandemic in Spring 2020. Food inflation has slowed over the past year, according to NBC News, and is now less than 2% as energy prices and supply chains have stabilized. Yet, experts caution that a combination of tariffs and mass deportations could have a further destabilizing effect on agriculture, food production and grocery prices. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs up to 60% on goods from China, and a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada – all countries that are significant exporters of food and other products to the U.S. market.
In a Time Magazine interview in December 2024, Trump acknowledged it may be difficult to bring down grocery prices, saying, “Look, they got them up. I’d like to bring them down. It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up.” According to a study from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada would have the biggest impact on prices for autos, vegetables, fuel, prepared food and animal products, reported CNN Business. The U.S. relies on Mexico for 89% of its imported avocados and 91% of foreign-grown tomatoes. “Higher tariffs on Mexico and Canada will … put upward pressure on U.S. food prices,” the Peterson Institute said. While it’s too soon to determine whether Trump will actually impose tariffs or if trade agreements can be reached to prevent them, “The only certainty is that new tariffs will be costly for the United States,” said the Peterson Institute study’s authors.
Food, Farm Workers and Mass Deportation
California’s Monterey County is the fourth-largest crop-producing county in the nation, with the agriculture industry there contributing $4.4 billion to the economy, and with an estimated 55,000 farm workers, including many who are undocumented. As such, the area’s growers have expressed concern that much of their workforce could disappear as a result of potential mass deportations once the Trump administration takes office. In an interview on Dec. 19, 2024, with NBC Bay Area News, Monterey County Farm Bureau CEO Norm Groot said, “It will absolutely impact food prices at the consumer level. If it impacts local and nationwide supplies, that will have a price increase.” NBC reported the farm bureau is teaming up with county officials and other stakeholders to create a task force in addressing local concerns around mass deportations, including concerns around family and child separation. "It's interesting that four years ago during the pandemic, they were essential," Groot said. "And now all of a sudden we’re looking at it from a different perspective and trying to understand how that dynamic has changed."
And it’s not just Monterey County – while it’s estimated that undocumented workers make up only 5% of the total U.S. workforce, the share of undocumented workers across the nation’s food supply chain is at least 16%, reported Successful Farming. In some industries this number is higher – the Idaho Dairymen’s Association estimated that nearly 90% of the state’s dairy workers were born outside of the U.S. According to a September 2024 study by the Peterson Institute, mass deportation could lead to a 10% increase in food prices. Between higher food prices that could come with proposed tariffs – and potential government bailouts funded by U.S. taxpayers to provide assistance to farmers affected by deportations – Americans could potentially get “double-whammied” by the higher costs and supply chain disruptions these proposed policies could bring.
RFK, FDA and the Nation’s Health
MAHA has become a rallying cry for many in the natural health and nutritional supplements industry as Congress weighs the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Kennedy, a lawyer, environmentalist and controversial health advocate, is Trump’s pick to lead the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), a Cabinet-level position that oversees the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Institutes of Health (NIH), and others.
On one hand, RFK’s team is weighing a rewrite to the FDA’s rules overseeing food additives and taking a hard look at the harmful chemicals and pesticides used in food production. On the other hand, RFK’s top lawyer Aaron Siri stirred controversy when it was reported in December 2024 by CNN and others that he had petitioned the FDA to revoke approval of the polio vaccine. The World Health Organization declared that polio was eradicated in 2019 but warned it could re-emerge if vaccination coverage declines. According to a Dec. 4, 2024, article in Forbes, Kennedy criticized the FDA in a post on X (formerly Twitter) for “suppressing” a wide range of items, including “psychedelics, peptides, stem cells, raw milk, hyperbaric therapies, chelating compounds, ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, vitamins, clean foods, sunshine, exercise, nutraceuticals, and anything else that advances human health and can’t be patented by Pharma.”
Kennedy will have an ally in Martin Makary, M.D., a surgeon, public policy researcher at Johns Hopkins University and a member of the National Academy of Medicine, and President-elect Trump’s choice to serve as FDA Commissioner. In September 2024, Makary joined RFK at a round table in Congress on health and nutrition, where he criticized how food in the U.S. is grown and processed. "We have poisoned our food supply, engineered highly addictive chemicals that we put into our food. We spray it with pesticides that kill pests. What do you think they do to our gut lining in our microbiome?" Makary said. In related news, Trump’s pick for Surgeon General, Dr. Janette Nesheiwat, a family medicine doctor who runs a chain of urgent care clinics in New York, was a regular Fox News contributor and is an advocate for nutritional supplements, marketing her own brand of dietary supplements called BC Boost, containing vitamins C, B-12, D and Zinc.
Brooke Rollins Nominated to Lead USDA
President-elect Trump in November nominated Brooke Rollins, President and CEO of the America First Policy Institute, a conservative think tank based in Texas, to lead the U.S. Department of Agriculture. “As our next Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke will spearhead the effort to protect American farmers, who are truly the backbone of our country,” Trump said in a statement. Rollins is a graduate of Texas A&M University, with an undergraduate degree in agriculture development. “From her upbringing in the small and agriculture-centered town of Glen Rose, Texas, to her years of leadership involvement with Future Farmers of America and 4H, to her generational family farming background, to guiding her four kids in their show cattle careers, Brooke has a practitioner’s experience, along with deep policy credentials in both nonprofit and government leadership at the state and national levels,” the statement said.
“We congratulate Brooke Rollins on her nomination as Secretary of Agriculture. This is an important moment for U.S. agriculture, and we are optimistic about the opportunities her leadership will bring to rural America,” Amy France, chairwoman of the National Sorghum Producers in Scott City, KS, told Successful Farming. "Sorghum farmers are at the forefront of innovation, contributing to domestic biofuels and heart-healthy, nutritious, ancient grain foods. We are eager to work with her to advance policies that strengthen the sorghum industry and benefit growers nationwide.”
“The Department of Agriculture plays a pivotal role in safeguarding our food supply, addressing food insecurity, managing our forests, as well as supporting America’s farmers and rural communities who are on the frontlines of the climate crisis,” said Rebecca Riley, Managing Director, Food and Agriculture, for the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). “Rollins needs to invest in America’s farmers – from small family farms to larger-scale operations – and to work toward a resilient and equitable food system that puts healthy food on the table, restores our soil, protects the climate, and safeguards the health of our communities … now is not the time to undermine climate-smart farming practices, favor industrial agriculture at the expense of small producers and consumers, or gut the nutrition programs that many Americans rely on,” Riley said.
California’s AB 660 Sets Landmark Food Date Labeling Standards
California Governor Gavin Newsom in September 2024 signed into law the nation's first mandatory food date labeling reform bill. California Assembly Bill 660 (AB 660) standardizes the use of “Best If Used By” and “Use By” dates on food labels, and prohibits the use of “Sell By” dates. The new law requires manufacturers to use the same phrase for date labels across their products, reported Food Safety. Beginning July 1, 2026, companies selling food products in California must only use “Best If Used By” to indicate the date by which a product will reach its peak quality, and “Use By” to indicate the date by which a product’s safety can no longer be guaranteed. The use of consumer-facing “Sell By” dates will be prohibited to reduce the chances of consumers confusing “Sell By” dates with quality or safety dates.
“On grocery store shelves today, there are more than 50 differently phrased date labels on packaged food. Some phrases are used to communicate peak freshness of a product or when a product is no longer safe to eat. Others, like ‘Sell By,’ are used only to inform stock rotation in stores but mislead some consumers into thinking the product is no longer safe to eat. AB 660 will close this gap by requiring manufacturers to use the same phrase for date labels across their products,” NRDC said in a statement.
Of course, as goes California, so goes the country. “AB 660 is game changing, not just for California, but for the country. It will be the first law of its kind to end the ridiculous confusion that causes consumers to throw out almost $15 billion of perfectly good food nationwide. It will also help reduce the significant toll that wasting food has on our planet,” Dana Gunders, President of reFED, told BioCycle Magazine. “Having to wonder whether our food is still good is an issue that we all have struggled with. Today’s signing of AB 660 is a monumental step to keep money in the pockets of consumers while helping the environment and the planet,” said Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, author of the bill.
HeyBamboo® Expands Into Brick and Mortar With 'Eco-Luxe' Toilet Paper and Paper Towels
‘Sustainable to the Core,’ the bleach-free, compostable, recyclable, zero-waste and plastic-free products are now available to retailers that prioritize sustainability and premium quality.
SAN FRANCISCO (Aug. 23, 2024) — HeyBamboo® founder and CEO Joslyn Faust is leading a sustainable paper revolution. HeyBamboo has been selling its “eco-luxe” premium quality toilet paper products successfully online to conscious consumers for the past year and the company is now poised to expand into select brick and mortar retail locations with the debut of retail packs of its bleach-free toilet paper and a new line of paper towels made from 100% bamboo.
HeyBamboo will debut the new retail line to natural channel and healthy lifestyle retail buyers at the upcoming Newtopia Now trade show, Aug. 25-28, 2024, in Denver. The company will exhibit in the Represent Neighborhood.
“Newtopia Now is the ideal place to launch the our new retail line since the focus is on having meaningful conversations with key buyers who are looking for conscious CPG brands on the cusp of industry trends,” notes Joslyn. “The show, with its focus on sustainability, wellness and diversity, is welcoming to me as an emerging, mission-based brand. As a female minority founder, that is important.”
HeyBamboo CEO & founder Joslyn Faust
Why Bamboo Is Best
Bamboo, a fast-growing, renewable resource, has incredibly powerful regenerative capabilities. Bamboo sequesters 2.03 metric tons of carbon per hectare per year and requires 30% less water than its traditional rivals during the manufacturing process.
HeyBamboo products are made from soft, strong and FSC (Forest Stewardship Council) certified 100% bamboo. The toilet paper comes in a 3-ply, 360-sheet roll, with nine rolls to a retail box. The new retail paper towels are available in 3-roll packs with 150 2-ply half-sheets per roll. The packaging and core are also made from 100% recyclable and compostable bamboo, making the products septic safe, zero-waste and completely plastic free.
“We consider HeyBamboo to be the luxurious alternative to alternative toilet paper. Our products are sustainably sourced, offer superior performance, and are great for the planet and better for you and your family. Not to mention, HeyBamboo toilet paper and paper towels help keep trees in the ground, where they belong,” Joslyn says.
Answering Nature’s Call
When the toilet paper shortage hit during the Covid pandemic, Joslyn became curious and began looking into the impact of toilet paper manufacturing.
Each year the logging industry cuts down more than a million acres of virgin North American boreal forest, in large part to meet consumer demand for toilet paper. These forests are critical in sequestering carbon, and their destruction can lead to long-term environmental damage and climate change, according to the Natural Resources Defense Council. In addition, Joslyn discovered that toxic chemicals including bleach and “forever chemicals” (PFAS) are used in the vast majority of toilet paper manufacturing.
Seeing an opportunity to change the paper products paradigm, Joslyn launched HeyBamboo to provide sustainable, bleach-free toilet paper.
“As a consumer, I was merely looking for something better for my family and realized there aren’t a lot of sustainable toilet paper brands on the market. They tend to be bleached, wrapped in plastic or expensive. So I decided to create an option made from bamboo that is soft, feels great, is a good value and has all the qualities conscious consumers care about,” she says.
About HeyBamboo
Established in 2023, HeyBamboo is a minority, woman-owned, conscious CPG brand dedicated to providing consumers with premium-quality “eco-luxe” sustainable paper products. HeyBamboo is a member of 1% for the Planet, One Tree Planted and the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC). For information, visit www.HeyBamboo.com and follow on TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Pinterest and LinkedIn.
For wholesale inquiries, contact hello@heybamboo.com.
Visit HeyBamboo at Newtopia Now in Booth 646 in the Represent Neighborhood featuring mission-based, Conscious CPG brands from traditionally underrepresented communities.
Learn More
Conscious CPG Voices: HeyBamboo Brings Sustainability and Inspiration to Newtopia Now
Leading Visibly: Joslyn Faust Is Leading a Sustainable Toilet Paper Revolution. Here’s How.
Video Podcast: Sustainable Innovations: A Conversation with Hey Bamboo Founder & CEO Joslyn Faust
Media Contact
Steven Hoffman, Compass Natural, steve@compassnatural.com, tel 303.807.1042